World vs Model · World Cup 2026
World vs Model · World Cup 2026
🔮 Lights up once the first games are played. The informed model re-forecasts after every result, so this will show how it changed its mind (title odds rising and falling) and the biggest surprises — with whether the model or the market saw them coming. World Cups always spring a few.
Belgium #8
Cape Verde #44
QatarWhat the informed Elo model expects, from 20k simulations of the verified bracket — these are the model's probabilities, not the market's. A 20k-run simulation is a distribution, not a single prediction, so we lead with the spread of outcomes and keep the single most-likely bracket for last.
Argentina vs 
Spain — yet that exact pairing lands in only 4.5% of the runs. No single outcome is likely; the spread is the forecast. These bars are the whole distribution — the bracket lower down is just its one most-likely path.ESP16.4%ARG12.1%
FRA9.9%
ENG6.1%
BRA5.1%
POR4.5%
COL4.3%
NED3.9%
ECU3.4%
CRO3.0%
MEX3.0%
GER2.8%ESP16%ARG12%FRA10%ENG6%BRA5%POR4%COL4%NED4%ECU3%CRO3%MEX3%GER3%
JPN3%
NOR3%
TUR2%
SUI2%
URU2%BEL2%
CAN2%
SEN2%
PAR1%
MAR1%
AUT1%
USA1%
SCO1%
IRN1%
AUS1%
KOR1%
CZE0%
ALG0%
PAN0%
SWE0%
EGY0%
UZB0%
CIV0%
JOR0%
COD0%
TUN0%
BIH0%
NZL0%CPV0%
KSA0%
HAI0%
RSA0%
CUW0%
IRQ0%QAT0%
GHA0%top-2 qualify, 3rd may sneak through as a best-third; order is the model's expected finish.
| 1 | Mexico | 99% |
| 2 | South Korea | 84% |
| 3 | Czechia | 80% |
| 4 | South Africa | 13% |
| 1 | Switzerland | 100% |
| 2 | Canada | 99% |
| 3 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 55% |
| 4 | Qatar | 8% |
| 1 | Brazil | 99% |
| 2 | Morocco | 89% |
| 3 | Scotland | 79% |
| 4 | Haiti | 8% |
| 1 | Türkiye | 88% |
| 2 | Paraguay | 73% |
| 3 | USA | 62% |
| 4 | Australia | 55% |
| 1 | Ecuador | 99% |
| 2 | Germany | 99% |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 67% |
| 4 | Curaçao | 4% |
| 1 | Netherlands | 98% |
| 2 | Japan | 94% |
| 3 | Sweden | 51% |
| 4 | Tunisia | 24% |
| 1 | Belgium | 96% |
| 2 | Iran | 83% |
| 3 | Egypt | 67% |
| 4 | New Zealand | 28% |
| 1 | Spain | >99.9% |
| 2 | Uruguay | 97% |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 18% |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 16% |
| 1 | France | 99% |
| 2 | Norway | 90% |
| 3 | Senegal | 81% |
| 4 | Iraq | 7% |
| 1 | Argentina | 100% |
| 2 | Austria | 77% |
| 3 | Algeria | 51% |
| 4 | Jordan | 30% |
| 1 | Portugal | 98% |
| 2 | Colombia | 97% |
| 3 | Uzbekistan | 44% |
| 4 | DR Congo | 22% |
| 1 | England | 100% |
| 2 | Croatia | 98% |
| 3 | Panama | 68% |
| 4 | Ghana | 4% |
ECUUSAFRASWEKORCANNEDMARCOLCROESPAUTTURALGBELCZEECUFRACANNEDCOLESPTURBELFRANEDESPTURFRAESPESP
ARGENGARGBRAENGARGPORBRAGERMEXENGARGPARSUIPORBRAJPNGERNORMEXSCOENGSENARGURUPARIRNSUIEGYPORPANThis is the modal path — it plays out in only a minority of runs. The title race and how-far-each-team-goes charts above are the fuller, more honest read of the simulation.
The bracket above is a projection; this keeps it honest. Each side fills the bracket from its own probabilities (the top teams per round); a correctly placed team scores that round's weight — Last-32 ×1 · QF ×4 · SF ×8 · Final ×16 · Champion ×32. Forecasts are timestamped pre-tournament; arms at the Round of 32 (Jun 28) — frozen now, scored as it plays.
🏆 To lift the trophy — Market: ESP · Informed · Elo: ESP (they can agree on the favourite yet score very differently on the path there)
| Round | Wt | Where the brackets disagree (model picks vs market picks) |
|---|---|---|
| Last 32 | ×1 | agree 30/32 PANAUS vs ALGBOS |
| Quarter-finals | ×4 | agree 7/8 COL vs GER |
| Semi-finals | ×8 | agree 3/4 ARG vs BRA |
| Final | ×16 | agree 1/2 ARG vs FRA |
| Champion | ×32 | agree 1/1 identical picks |
Only the informed model and the market appear here: the zero-knowledge model just re-shapes the market's own prices, so its bracket is identical to the market's by construction — it competes on calibration (Brier), not on picks. And one bracket is a single high-variance draw, so the round-by-round Brier scores are the meaningful verdict; this points race is the legible one.
Rather than commit to one model, the ensemble averages both — weighted by each model's per-round Brier track record. The weight at each rung self-corrects: whichever model is better-calibrated at that rung earns a bigger share. Pre-tournament both weight 0.5; tied 50/50 per rung — will start drifting once the first round resolves.
| Round | Model confidence (Zero-knowledge ←→ Informed · Elo) | Leader |
|---|---|---|
| Last 32 | tied | |
| Quarters | tied | |
| Semis | tied | |
| Final | tied | |
| Champion | tied |
Why average? Combined forecasts beat their components on average — a replicated finding across forecasting (IPCC averages climate models, BoE averages inflation models, ensembles routinely win Kaggle). The catch with one tournament: weights move modestly and the ensemble itself is now a third falsifiable claim.
The informed contender: an independent forecast (not derived from the market). The engine simulates the verified bracket on real per-team World Football Elo ratings (what is Elo?, as of 2026-06-01). The group stage trusts Elo as-is; the knockout gets a disclosed ×0.6 shrink (single-elimination is coin-flippier than match-Elo). The three 2026 co-hosts get a +60 Elo home bump, and every run draws each team's rating from a ±70 Elo uncertainty band — so the favorite sits at a plausible ~16% and we don't print false-precision 0%/100% for minnows and giants. All disclosed priors, not tuned to the market. It can genuinely disagree with the crowd — but a public-ratings model is usually less sharp than a liquid market, so a big gap is more likely the model being cruder than the market being wrong. Its two books (Buy & Hold / Active) sit alongside the zero-knowledge ones below; the scorecard adjudicates.
Portugal France England| Team | Polymarket — de-vigged to round slots (what the WORLD prices) | Win the Cup | Edge model−world | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advance | Reach QF | Reach SF | Reach Final | Win Cup | market world | model zero-knowledge | ||
| Spain #2★1 | 99.3% | 53.7% | 38.2% | 22.6% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 18.7% | +2.2% |
| France #3★2 | 97.3% | 52.3% | 35.7% | 21.4% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 17.6% | +2.0% |
| Portugal #6 | 97.1% | 45.7% | 29.4% | 16.3% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 11.2% | +0.6% |
| England #4★1 | 96.4% | 49.2% | 27.3% | 17.9% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 10.8% | +0.6% |
| Argentina #1★3 | 97.2% | 46.6% | 26.5% | 15.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | +0.3% |
| Brazil #5★5 | 97.5% | 45.2% | 27.3% | 15.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | +0.2% |
| Germany #9★4 | 97.3% | 35.5% | 19.3% | 9.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | -0.3% |
| Netherlands #7 | 93.1% | 33.3% | 19.3% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | -0.3% |
| Norway #24 | 86.6% | 27.1% | 14.7% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | -0.4% |
| Belgium #8 | 96.1% | 33.7% | 12.2% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | -0.3% |
| Colombia #12 | 90.6% | 25.3% | 13.0% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | -0.3% |
| Japan #18 | 80.5% | 22.2% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | -0.3% |
| Morocco #11 | 87.6% | 22.2% | 9.7% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | -0.3% |
| Switzerland #16 | 95.1% | 21.3% | 8.8% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | -0.3% |
| Mexico #15 | 99.5% | 27.5% | 13.9% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | -0.3% |
| USA #14 | 84.5% | 21.3% | 8.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | -0.3% |
| Türkiye #36 | 80.5% | 22.2% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | -0.3% |
| Uruguay #13★2 | 89.6% | 20.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | -0.2% |
| Ecuador #22 | 88.6% | 17.3% | 7.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | -0.2% |
| Croatia #10 | 83.5% | 17.7% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | -0.2% |
| Senegal #17 | 71.4% | 14.2% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | -0.2% |
| Austria #23 | 81.0% | 12.4% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| Canada #28 | 86.6% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| Ivory Coast #29 | 78.0% | 12.0% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| Sweden #25 | 61.2% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| South Korea #20 | 76.4% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| Scotland #34 | 70.4% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| Egypt #26 | 72.4% | 8.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| Iran #19 | 62.2% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| Ghana #42 | 50.6% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| Algeria #31 | 66.3% | 8.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina #45 | · | · | · | · | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| Paraguay #35 | 64.3% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| DR Congo #38 | 44.0% | 5.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| Czechia #33 | 69.3% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| Australia #21 | 42.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| New Zealand #48 | 32.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
| Haiti #47 | 13.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
| Jordan #41 | 20.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
| Curaçao #46 | 7.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
| Tunisia #32 | 34.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
| Uzbekistan #39 | 31.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
| Panama #27 | 34.4% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
| Iraq #40 | 13.7% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
| South Africa #43 | 20.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
| Cape Verde #44 | 30.9% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
| Qatar #30 | 20.8% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
| Saudi Arabia #37 | 38.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
A secondary, "what-if" view — purely to put a number on the disagreements above. No real money: a $1,000 paper book, conviction-weighted and dollar-neutral. Edges are shown net of a ~1c half-spread — a gap that doesn't clear the cost to trade it is sized to zero (that half-spread is the cost buffer). Buy & Hold enters once at day 0 and holds to resolution; Active Trading is re-evaluated daily and rebalances whenever a market settles or a fresh edge clears that buffer — any day, not only matchdays (a riskless inconsistency is the clearest example). Methodology →
Buy & Hold — entered once at day 0, held to each market's resolution, marked to today's prices. Click a row for the why; click a header to sort.
| Side | Team | Round | Resolves | Entry | Now | PnL | Max ↓ | Max ↑ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | Argentina | Advance | Jun 27 | 95.5% | 96.0% | $+0.30 | $-51.67 | +$2.43 |
| The market prices Argentina to Advance at 95.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +3.9% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $51.67 · max upside if it resolves your way +$2.43 · breakeven at a true probability of 95.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Switzerland | Advance | Jun 27 | 93.6% | 93.9% | $+0.15 | $-46.80 | +$3.20 |
| The market prices Switzerland to Advance at 93.6%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 98.5% — a +4.6% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $46.80 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.20 · breakeven at a true probability of 93.6% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Belgium | Advance | Jun 27 | 95.9% | 94.9% | $-0.47 | $-45.55 | +$1.95 |
| The market prices Belgium to Advance at 95.9%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.7% — a +4.8% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $45.55 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.95 · breakeven at a true probability of 95.9% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Portugal | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.2% | 95.9% | $-0.11 | $-41.73 | +$1.67 |
| The market prices Portugal to Advance at 96.2%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +4.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $41.73 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.67 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.2% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Panama | Advance | Jun 27 | 28.5% | 34.0% | $-3.16 | $-41.11 | +$16.39 |
| The market prices Panama to Advance at 28.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 30.6% — a -3.4% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $41.11 · max upside if it resolves your way +$16.39 · breakeven at a true probability of 28.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Uzbekistan | Advance | Jun 27 | 31.5% | 31.5% | $-0.00 | $-40.48 | +$18.62 |
| The market prices Uzbekistan to Advance at 31.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 28.1% — a -3.5% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $40.48 · max upside if it resolves your way +$18.62 · breakeven at a true probability of 31.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Cape Verde | Advance | Jun 27 | 32.0% | 30.5% | $+0.89 | $-40.32 | +$18.98 |
| The market prices Cape Verde to Advance at 32.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 27.0% — a -3.5% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $40.32 · max upside if it resolves your way +$18.98 · breakeven at a true probability of 32.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | New Zealand | Advance | Jun 27 | 32.5% | 32.0% | $+0.30 | $-40.16 | +$19.34 |
| The market prices New Zealand to Advance at 32.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 28.6% — a -3.4% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $40.16 · max upside if it resolves your way +$19.34 · breakeven at a true probability of 32.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Saudi Arabia | Advance | Jun 27 | 34.5% | 37.5% | $-1.80 | $-39.23 | +$20.67 |
| The market prices Saudi Arabia to Advance at 34.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 34.3% — a -3.2% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $39.23 · max upside if it resolves your way +$20.67 · breakeven at a true probability of 34.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Qatar | Advance | Jun 27 | 21.0% | 20.5% | $+0.25 | $-39.11 | +$10.39 |
| The market prices Qatar to Advance at 21.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 17.1% — a -3.4% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $39.11 · max upside if it resolves your way +$10.39 · breakeven at a true probability of 21.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Jordan | Advance | Jun 27 | 19.0% | 20.0% | $-0.46 | $-37.50 | +$8.80 |
| The market prices Jordan to Advance at 19.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 16.6% — a -3.4% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$8.80 · breakeven at a true probability of 19.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Mexico | Advance | Jun 27 | 90.5% | 98.3% | $+3.23 | $-37.47 | +$3.93 |
| The market prices Mexico to Advance at 90.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +1.6% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.47 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.93 · breakeven at a true probability of 90.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Germany | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.5% | 96.2% | $-0.12 | $-37.23 | +$1.37 |
| The market prices Germany to Advance at 96.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +3.8% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.23 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.37 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | South Africa | Advance | Jun 27 | 38.0% | 20.5% | $+10.46 | $-37.08 | +$22.72 |
| The market prices South Africa to Advance at 38.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 17.1% — a -3.4% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.08 · max upside if it resolves your way +$22.72 · breakeven at a true probability of 38.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Tunisia | Advance | Jun 27 | 38.5% | 34.5% | $+2.39 | $-36.72 | +$22.98 |
| The market prices Tunisia to Advance at 38.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 31.1% — a -3.4% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $36.72 · max upside if it resolves your way +$22.98 · breakeven at a true probability of 38.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Brazil | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.5% | 96.4% | $-0.06 | $-36.48 | +$1.32 |
| The market prices Brazil to Advance at 96.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +3.5% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $36.48 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.32 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Netherlands | Advance | Jun 27 | 90.0% | 92.0% | $+0.80 | $-36.00 | +$4.00 |
| The market prices Netherlands to Advance at 90.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 96.2% — a +4.2% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $36.00 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.00 · breakeven at a true probability of 90.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Ecuador | Advance | Jun 27 | 89.0% | 87.5% | $-0.56 | $-33.11 | +$4.09 |
| The market prices Ecuador to Advance at 89.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 90.8% — a +3.3% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $33.11 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.09 · breakeven at a true probability of 89.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | DR Congo | Advance | Jun 27 | 43.0% | 43.5% | $-0.28 | $-32.49 | +$24.51 |
| The market prices DR Congo to Advance at 43.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 40.7% — a -2.8% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $32.49 · max upside if it resolves your way +$24.51 · breakeven at a true probability of 43.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Iraq | Advance | Jun 27 | 14.5% | 13.5% | $+0.38 | $-32.32 | +$5.48 |
| The market prices Iraq to Advance at 14.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 10.6% — a -2.9% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $32.32 · max upside if it resolves your way +$5.48 · breakeven at a true probability of 14.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | France | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.8% | 96.2% | $-0.21 | $-31.85 | +$1.05 |
| The market prices France to Advance at 96.8%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +3.8% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $31.85 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.05 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.8% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Haiti | Advance | Jun 27 | 13.0% | 13.5% | $-0.17 | $-30.02 | +$4.49 |
| The market prices Haiti to Advance at 13.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 10.6% — a -2.9% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $30.02 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.49 · breakeven at a true probability of 13.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Colombia | Advance | Jun 27 | 87.5% | 89.5% | $+0.66 | $-28.70 | +$4.10 |
| The market prices Colombia to Advance at 87.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 93.2% — a +3.7% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $28.70 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.10 · breakeven at a true probability of 87.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Switzerland | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 22.0% | 24.0% | $-0.68 | $-26.68 | +$7.52 |
| The market prices Switzerland to Reach QF at 22.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 20.6% — a -3.4% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $26.68 · max upside if it resolves your way +$7.52 · breakeven at a true probability of 22.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Türkiye | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 21.5% | 25.0% | $-1.19 | $-26.69 | +$7.31 |
| The market prices Türkiye to Reach QF at 21.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 21.6% — a -3.4% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $26.69 · max upside if it resolves your way +$7.31 · breakeven at a true probability of 21.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Uruguay | Advance | Jun 27 | 86.5% | 88.5% | $+0.60 | $-25.95 | +$4.05 |
| The market prices Uruguay to Advance at 86.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 92.0% — a +3.5% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $25.95 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.05 · breakeven at a true probability of 86.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Morocco | Advance | Jun 27 | 86.0% | 86.5% | $+0.14 | $-24.42 | +$3.98 |
| The market prices Morocco to Advance at 86.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 89.6% — a +3.1% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $24.42 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.98 · breakeven at a true probability of 86.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Norway | Advance | Jun 27 | 85.5% | 85.5% | $+0.00 | $-23.09 | +$3.92 |
| The market prices Norway to Advance at 85.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 88.4% — a +2.9% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $23.09 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.92 · breakeven at a true probability of 85.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| realized $+0.00 · unrealized $+11.26 · 28/28 open | $+11.26 | ↤ click a row | ||||||
Active Trading — re-evaluated daily; it cuts a leg the model turns against, rotates into a clearly bigger edge, and rides winners to settlement — any day, not only matchdays. Open positions marked to today's prices. Click a row for the why; click a header to sort.
| Side | Team | Round | Resolves | Entry | Now | PnL | Max ↓ | Max ↑ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | Argentina | Advance | Jun 27 | 95.5% | 96.0% | $+0.30 | $-51.67 | +$2.43 |
| The market prices Argentina to Advance at 95.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +3.9% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $51.67 · max upside if it resolves your way +$2.43 · breakeven at a true probability of 95.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Switzerland | Advance | Jun 27 | 93.6% | 93.9% | $+0.15 | $-46.80 | +$3.20 |
| The market prices Switzerland to Advance at 93.6%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 98.5% — a +4.6% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $46.80 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.20 · breakeven at a true probability of 93.6% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Belgium | Advance | Jun 27 | 95.9% | 94.9% | $-0.47 | $-45.55 | +$1.95 |
| The market prices Belgium to Advance at 95.9%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.7% — a +4.8% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $45.55 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.95 · breakeven at a true probability of 95.9% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Portugal | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.2% | 95.9% | $-0.11 | $-41.73 | +$1.67 |
| The market prices Portugal to Advance at 96.2%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +4.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $41.73 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.67 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.2% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Panama | Advance | Jun 27 | 28.5% | 34.0% | $-3.16 | $-41.11 | +$16.39 |
| The market prices Panama to Advance at 28.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 30.6% — a -3.4% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $41.11 · max upside if it resolves your way +$16.39 · breakeven at a true probability of 28.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Uzbekistan | Advance | Jun 27 | 31.5% | 31.5% | $-0.00 | $-40.48 | +$18.62 |
| The market prices Uzbekistan to Advance at 31.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 28.1% — a -3.5% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $40.48 · max upside if it resolves your way +$18.62 · breakeven at a true probability of 31.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Cape Verde | Advance | Jun 27 | 32.0% | 30.5% | $+0.89 | $-40.32 | +$18.98 |
| The market prices Cape Verde to Advance at 32.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 27.0% — a -3.5% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $40.32 · max upside if it resolves your way +$18.98 · breakeven at a true probability of 32.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | New Zealand | Advance | Jun 27 | 32.5% | 32.0% | $+0.30 | $-40.16 | +$19.34 |
| The market prices New Zealand to Advance at 32.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 28.6% — a -3.4% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $40.16 · max upside if it resolves your way +$19.34 · breakeven at a true probability of 32.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Saudi Arabia | Advance | Jun 27 | 34.5% | 37.5% | $-1.80 | $-39.23 | +$20.67 |
| The market prices Saudi Arabia to Advance at 34.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 34.3% — a -3.2% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $39.23 · max upside if it resolves your way +$20.67 · breakeven at a true probability of 34.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Qatar | Advance | Jun 27 | 21.0% | 20.5% | $+0.25 | $-39.11 | +$10.39 |
| The market prices Qatar to Advance at 21.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 17.1% — a -3.4% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $39.11 · max upside if it resolves your way +$10.39 · breakeven at a true probability of 21.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Jordan | Advance | Jun 27 | 19.0% | 20.0% | $-0.46 | $-37.50 | +$8.80 |
| The market prices Jordan to Advance at 19.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 16.6% — a -3.4% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$8.80 · breakeven at a true probability of 19.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Mexico | Advance | Jun 27 | 90.5% | 98.3% | $+3.23 | $-37.47 | +$3.93 |
| The market prices Mexico to Advance at 90.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +1.6% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.47 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.93 · breakeven at a true probability of 90.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Germany | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.5% | 96.2% | $-0.12 | $-37.23 | +$1.37 |
| The market prices Germany to Advance at 96.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +3.8% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.23 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.37 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | South Africa | Advance | Jun 27 | 38.0% | 20.5% | $+10.46 | $-37.08 | +$22.72 |
| The market prices South Africa to Advance at 38.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 17.1% — a -3.4% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.08 · max upside if it resolves your way +$22.72 · breakeven at a true probability of 38.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Tunisia | Advance | Jun 27 | 38.5% | 34.5% | $+2.39 | $-36.72 | +$22.98 |
| The market prices Tunisia to Advance at 38.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 31.1% — a -3.4% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $36.72 · max upside if it resolves your way +$22.98 · breakeven at a true probability of 38.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Brazil | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.5% | 96.4% | $-0.06 | $-36.48 | +$1.32 |
| The market prices Brazil to Advance at 96.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +3.5% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $36.48 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.32 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Netherlands | Advance | Jun 27 | 90.0% | 92.0% | $+0.80 | $-36.00 | +$4.00 |
| The market prices Netherlands to Advance at 90.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 96.2% — a +4.2% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $36.00 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.00 · breakeven at a true probability of 90.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Ecuador | Advance | Jun 27 | 89.0% | 87.5% | $-0.56 | $-33.11 | +$4.09 |
| The market prices Ecuador to Advance at 89.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 90.8% — a +3.3% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $33.11 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.09 · breakeven at a true probability of 89.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | DR Congo | Advance | Jun 27 | 43.0% | 43.5% | $-0.28 | $-32.49 | +$24.51 |
| The market prices DR Congo to Advance at 43.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 40.7% — a -2.8% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $32.49 · max upside if it resolves your way +$24.51 · breakeven at a true probability of 43.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Iraq | Advance | Jun 27 | 14.5% | 13.5% | $+0.38 | $-32.32 | +$5.48 |
| The market prices Iraq to Advance at 14.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 10.6% — a -2.9% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $32.32 · max upside if it resolves your way +$5.48 · breakeven at a true probability of 14.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | France | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.8% | 96.2% | $-0.21 | $-31.85 | +$1.05 |
| The market prices France to Advance at 96.8%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +3.8% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $31.85 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.05 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.8% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Haiti | Advance | Jun 27 | 13.0% | 13.5% | $-0.17 | $-30.02 | +$4.49 |
| The market prices Haiti to Advance at 13.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 10.6% — a -2.9% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $30.02 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.49 · breakeven at a true probability of 13.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Colombia | Advance | Jun 27 | 87.5% | 89.5% | $+0.66 | $-28.70 | +$4.10 |
| The market prices Colombia to Advance at 87.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 93.2% — a +3.7% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $28.70 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.10 · breakeven at a true probability of 87.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Switzerland | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 22.0% | 24.0% | $-0.68 | $-26.68 | +$7.52 |
| The market prices Switzerland to Reach QF at 22.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 20.6% — a -3.4% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $26.68 · max upside if it resolves your way +$7.52 · breakeven at a true probability of 22.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Türkiye | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 21.5% | 25.0% | $-1.19 | $-26.69 | +$7.31 |
| The market prices Türkiye to Reach QF at 21.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 21.6% — a -3.4% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $26.69 · max upside if it resolves your way +$7.31 · breakeven at a true probability of 21.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Uruguay | Advance | Jun 27 | 86.5% | 88.5% | $+0.60 | $-25.95 | +$4.05 |
| The market prices Uruguay to Advance at 86.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 92.0% — a +3.5% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $25.95 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.05 · breakeven at a true probability of 86.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Morocco | Advance | Jun 27 | 86.0% | 86.5% | $+0.14 | $-24.42 | +$3.98 |
| The market prices Morocco to Advance at 86.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 89.6% — a +3.1% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $24.42 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.98 · breakeven at a true probability of 86.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Norway | Advance | Jun 27 | 85.5% | 85.5% | $+0.00 | $-23.09 | +$3.92 |
| The market prices Norway to Advance at 85.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 88.4% — a +2.9% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $23.09 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.92 · breakeven at a true probability of 85.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| realized $+0.00 · unrealized $+11.26 · 28/28 open | $+11.26 | ↤ click a row | ||||||
| Date | Opened | Settled | Step PnL | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 28 | 0 | $+0.00 | $+0.00 |
Elo · Buy & Hold — entered once at day 0, held to each market's resolution, marked to today's prices. Knockout rounds only (advance excluded); the rows are largely one correlated 'results-vs-reputation' bet, not diversified breadth. Click a row for the why; click a header to sort.
| Side | Team | Round | Resolves | Entry | Now | PnL | Max ↓ | Max ↑ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | Ecuador | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 18.0% | 19.5% | $+5.33 | $-63.97 | +$291.43 |
| The market prices Ecuador to Reach QF at 18.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 28.8%, a +10.5% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $63.97 · max upside if it resolves your way +$291.43 · breakeven at a true probability of 18.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | England | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 55.5% | 55.5% | $-0.00 | $-56.56 | +$70.54 |
| The market prices England to Reach QF at 55.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 38.9%, a -9.3% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $56.56 · max upside if it resolves your way +$70.54 · breakeven at a true probability of 55.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Portugal | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 48.5% | 51.5% | $-2.91 | $-49.90 | +$47.00 |
| The market prices Portugal to Reach QF at 48.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 33.1%, a -11.5% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $49.90 · max upside if it resolves your way +$47.00 · breakeven at a true probability of 48.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Belgium | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 37.0% | 38.0% | $-0.78 | $-48.95 | +$28.75 |
| The market prices Belgium to Reach QF at 37.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 24.1%, a -8.6% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $48.95 · max upside if it resolves your way +$28.75 · breakeven at a true probability of 37.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Argentina | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 30.5% | 31.5% | $+1.49 | $-45.54 | +$103.76 |
| The market prices Argentina to Reach SF at 30.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 34.7%, a +7.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $45.54 · max upside if it resolves your way +$103.76 · breakeven at a true probability of 30.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Iran | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 4.5% | 5.5% | $+9.50 | $-45.02 | +$955.48 |
| The market prices Iran to Reach QF at 4.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 13.1%, a +7.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $45.02 · max upside if it resolves your way +$955.48 · breakeven at a true probability of 4.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | USA | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 23.0% | 24.0% | $-0.58 | $-44.66 | +$13.34 |
| The market prices USA to Reach QF at 23.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 11.7%, a -8.6% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $44.66 · max upside if it resolves your way +$13.34 · breakeven at a true probability of 23.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Croatia | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 19.0% | 20.0% | $+2.29 | $-43.43 | +$185.17 |
| The market prices Croatia to Reach QF at 19.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 26.0%, a +7.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $43.43 · max upside if it resolves your way +$185.17 · breakeven at a true probability of 19.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Brazil | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 50.0% | 51.0% | $-0.80 | $-39.80 | +$39.80 |
| The market prices Brazil to Reach QF at 50.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 36.6%, a -7.6% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $39.80 · max upside if it resolves your way +$39.80 · breakeven at a true probability of 50.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Mexico | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 24.5% | 31.0% | $+10.26 | $-38.69 | +$119.21 |
| The market prices Mexico to Reach QF at 24.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 30.6%, a +2.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $38.69 · max upside if it resolves your way +$119.21 · breakeven at a true probability of 24.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Portugal | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 31.0% | 35.0% | $-2.12 | $-36.57 | +$16.43 |
| The market prices Portugal to Reach SF at 31.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 17.8%, a -10.6% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $36.57 · max upside if it resolves your way +$16.43 · breakeven at a true probability of 31.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Colombia | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 28.0% | 28.5% | $+0.64 | $-35.64 | +$91.66 |
| The market prices Colombia to Reach QF at 28.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 32.6%, a +6.3% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $35.64 · max upside if it resolves your way +$91.66 · breakeven at a true probability of 28.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Ecuador | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 8.0% | 8.9% | $+4.16 | $-35.06 | +$403.24 |
| The market prices Ecuador to Reach SF at 8.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 14.3%, a +5.8% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $35.06 · max upside if it resolves your way +$403.24 · breakeven at a true probability of 8.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Canada | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 14.5% | 13.0% | $-3.57 | $-34.50 | +$203.40 |
| The market prices Canada to Reach QF at 14.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 21.0%, a +8.4% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $34.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$203.40 · breakeven at a true probability of 14.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Germany | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 24.0% | 23.0% | $+0.43 | $-32.76 | +$10.34 |
| The market prices Germany to Reach SF at 24.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 13.2%, a -5.1% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $32.76 · max upside if it resolves your way +$10.34 · breakeven at a true probability of 24.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Brazil | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 31.0% | 32.5% | $-0.66 | $-30.50 | +$13.70 |
| The market prices Brazil to Reach SF at 31.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 19.4%, a -6.9% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $30.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$13.70 · breakeven at a true probability of 31.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | France | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 43.5% | 42.5% | $+0.52 | $-29.49 | +$22.71 |
| The market prices France to Reach SF at 43.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 30.0%, a -4.8% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $29.49 · max upside if it resolves your way +$22.71 · breakeven at a true probability of 43.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Germany | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 37.0% | 40.0% | $-1.38 | $-28.98 | +$17.02 |
| The market prices Germany to Reach QF at 37.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 27.3%, a -7.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $28.98 · max upside if it resolves your way +$17.02 · breakeven at a true probability of 37.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Paraguay | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 10.0% | 10.0% | $+0.00 | $-28.73 | +$258.57 |
| The market prices Paraguay to Reach QF at 10.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 15.8%, a +5.9% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $28.73 · max upside if it resolves your way +$258.57 · breakeven at a true probability of 10.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Panama | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 3.3% | 2.2% | $-8.84 | $-27.77 | +$813.83 |
| The market prices Panama to Reach QF at 3.3%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 9.0%, a +6.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $27.77 · max upside if it resolves your way +$813.83 · breakeven at a true probability of 3.3% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | France | Win Cup | Jul 19 | 16.0% | 16.1% | $-0.03 | $-26.48 | +$5.02 |
| The market prices France to Win Cup at 16.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 9.9%, a -4.7% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $26.48 · max upside if it resolves your way +$5.02 · breakeven at a true probability of 16.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Colombia | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 14.5% | 15.5% | $+1.77 | $-25.74 | +$151.76 |
| The market prices Colombia to Reach SF at 14.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 17.8%, a +3.8% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.74 · max upside if it resolves your way +$151.76 · breakeven at a true probability of 14.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Türkiye | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 21.5% | 25.0% | $+4.15 | $-25.50 | +$93.10 |
| The market prices Türkiye to Reach QF at 21.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 24.7%, a +1.6% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$93.10 · breakeven at a true probability of 21.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Croatia | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 8.9% | 9.4% | $+1.56 | $-25.22 | +$258.18 |
| The market prices Croatia to Reach SF at 8.9%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 13.4%, a +4.5% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.22 · max upside if it resolves your way +$258.18 · breakeven at a true probability of 8.9% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Australia | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 5.0% | 4.5% | $-2.52 | $-25.17 | +$478.23 |
| The market prices Australia to Reach QF at 5.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 9.6%, a +4.6% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.17 · max upside if it resolves your way +$478.23 · breakeven at a true probability of 5.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | England | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 33.5% | 32.5% | $+0.38 | $-25.14 | +$12.66 |
| The market prices England to Reach SF at 33.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 22.3%, a -4.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.14 · max upside if it resolves your way +$12.66 · breakeven at a true probability of 33.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Norway | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 32.0% | 30.5% | $+0.55 | $-25.09 | +$11.81 |
| The market prices Norway to Reach QF at 32.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 23.2%, a -2.8% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.09 · max upside if it resolves your way +$11.81 · breakeven at a true probability of 32.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Ghana | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 6.5% | 6.2% | $+0.07 | $-25.06 | +$1.74 |
| The market prices Ghana to Reach QF at 6.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 0.2%, a -4.3% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.06 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.74 · breakeven at a true probability of 6.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| realized $+0.00 · unrealized $+18.94 · 28/28 open | $+18.94 | ↤ click a row | ||||||
Elo · Active Trading — re-evaluated daily; it cuts a leg the model turns against, rotates into a clearly bigger edge, and rides winners to settlement — any day, not only matchdays. Open positions marked to today's prices. Knockout rounds only (advance excluded); the rows are largely one correlated 'results-vs-reputation' bet, not diversified breadth. Click a row for the why; click a header to sort.
| Side | Team | Round | Resolves | Entry | Now | PnL | Max ↓ | Max ↑ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | Ecuador | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 18.0% | 19.5% | $+5.33 | $-63.97 | +$291.43 |
| The market prices Ecuador to Reach QF at 18.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 28.8%, a +10.5% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $63.97 · max upside if it resolves your way +$291.43 · breakeven at a true probability of 18.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | England | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 55.5% | 55.5% | $-0.00 | $-56.56 | +$70.54 |
| The market prices England to Reach QF at 55.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 38.9%, a -9.3% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $56.56 · max upside if it resolves your way +$70.54 · breakeven at a true probability of 55.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Portugal | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 48.5% | 51.5% | $-2.91 | $-49.90 | +$47.00 |
| The market prices Portugal to Reach QF at 48.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 33.1%, a -11.5% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $49.90 · max upside if it resolves your way +$47.00 · breakeven at a true probability of 48.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Belgium | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 37.0% | 38.0% | $-0.78 | $-48.95 | +$28.75 |
| The market prices Belgium to Reach QF at 37.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 24.1%, a -8.6% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $48.95 · max upside if it resolves your way +$28.75 · breakeven at a true probability of 37.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Argentina | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 30.5% | 31.5% | $+1.49 | $-45.54 | +$103.76 |
| The market prices Argentina to Reach SF at 30.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 34.7%, a +7.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $45.54 · max upside if it resolves your way +$103.76 · breakeven at a true probability of 30.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Iran | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 4.5% | 5.5% | $+9.50 | $-45.02 | +$955.48 |
| The market prices Iran to Reach QF at 4.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 13.1%, a +7.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $45.02 · max upside if it resolves your way +$955.48 · breakeven at a true probability of 4.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | USA | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 23.0% | 24.0% | $-0.58 | $-44.66 | +$13.34 |
| The market prices USA to Reach QF at 23.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 11.7%, a -8.6% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $44.66 · max upside if it resolves your way +$13.34 · breakeven at a true probability of 23.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Croatia | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 19.0% | 20.0% | $+2.29 | $-43.43 | +$185.17 |
| The market prices Croatia to Reach QF at 19.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 26.0%, a +7.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $43.43 · max upside if it resolves your way +$185.17 · breakeven at a true probability of 19.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Brazil | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 50.0% | 51.0% | $-0.80 | $-39.80 | +$39.80 |
| The market prices Brazil to Reach QF at 50.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 36.6%, a -7.6% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $39.80 · max upside if it resolves your way +$39.80 · breakeven at a true probability of 50.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Mexico | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 24.5% | 31.0% | $+10.26 | $-38.69 | +$119.21 |
| The market prices Mexico to Reach QF at 24.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 30.6%, a +2.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $38.69 · max upside if it resolves your way +$119.21 · breakeven at a true probability of 24.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Portugal | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 31.0% | 35.0% | $-2.12 | $-36.57 | +$16.43 |
| The market prices Portugal to Reach SF at 31.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 17.8%, a -10.6% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $36.57 · max upside if it resolves your way +$16.43 · breakeven at a true probability of 31.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Colombia | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 28.0% | 28.5% | $+0.64 | $-35.64 | +$91.66 |
| The market prices Colombia to Reach QF at 28.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 32.6%, a +6.3% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $35.64 · max upside if it resolves your way +$91.66 · breakeven at a true probability of 28.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Ecuador | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 8.0% | 8.9% | $+4.16 | $-35.06 | +$403.24 |
| The market prices Ecuador to Reach SF at 8.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 14.3%, a +5.8% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $35.06 · max upside if it resolves your way +$403.24 · breakeven at a true probability of 8.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Canada | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 14.5% | 13.0% | $-3.57 | $-34.50 | +$203.40 |
| The market prices Canada to Reach QF at 14.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 21.0%, a +8.4% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $34.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$203.40 · breakeven at a true probability of 14.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Germany | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 24.0% | 23.0% | $+0.43 | $-32.76 | +$10.34 |
| The market prices Germany to Reach SF at 24.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 13.2%, a -5.1% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $32.76 · max upside if it resolves your way +$10.34 · breakeven at a true probability of 24.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Brazil | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 31.0% | 32.5% | $-0.66 | $-30.50 | +$13.70 |
| The market prices Brazil to Reach SF at 31.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 19.4%, a -6.9% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $30.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$13.70 · breakeven at a true probability of 31.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | France | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 43.5% | 42.5% | $+0.52 | $-29.49 | +$22.71 |
| The market prices France to Reach SF at 43.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 30.0%, a -4.8% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $29.49 · max upside if it resolves your way +$22.71 · breakeven at a true probability of 43.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Germany | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 37.0% | 40.0% | $-1.38 | $-28.98 | +$17.02 |
| The market prices Germany to Reach QF at 37.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 27.3%, a -7.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $28.98 · max upside if it resolves your way +$17.02 · breakeven at a true probability of 37.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Paraguay | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 10.0% | 10.0% | $+0.00 | $-28.73 | +$258.57 |
| The market prices Paraguay to Reach QF at 10.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 15.8%, a +5.9% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $28.73 · max upside if it resolves your way +$258.57 · breakeven at a true probability of 10.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Panama | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 3.3% | 2.2% | $-8.84 | $-27.77 | +$813.83 |
| The market prices Panama to Reach QF at 3.3%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 9.0%, a +6.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $27.77 · max upside if it resolves your way +$813.83 · breakeven at a true probability of 3.3% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | France | Win Cup | Jul 19 | 16.0% | 16.1% | $-0.03 | $-26.48 | +$5.02 |
| The market prices France to Win Cup at 16.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 9.9%, a -4.7% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $26.48 · max upside if it resolves your way +$5.02 · breakeven at a true probability of 16.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Colombia | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 14.5% | 15.5% | $+1.77 | $-25.74 | +$151.76 |
| The market prices Colombia to Reach SF at 14.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 17.8%, a +3.8% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.74 · max upside if it resolves your way +$151.76 · breakeven at a true probability of 14.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Türkiye | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 21.5% | 25.0% | $+4.15 | $-25.50 | +$93.10 |
| The market prices Türkiye to Reach QF at 21.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 24.7%, a +1.6% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$93.10 · breakeven at a true probability of 21.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Croatia | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 8.9% | 9.4% | $+1.56 | $-25.22 | +$258.18 |
| The market prices Croatia to Reach SF at 8.9%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 13.4%, a +4.5% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.22 · max upside if it resolves your way +$258.18 · breakeven at a true probability of 8.9% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Australia | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 5.0% | 4.5% | $-2.52 | $-25.17 | +$478.23 |
| The market prices Australia to Reach QF at 5.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 9.6%, a +4.6% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.17 · max upside if it resolves your way +$478.23 · breakeven at a true probability of 5.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | England | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 33.5% | 32.5% | $+0.38 | $-25.14 | +$12.66 |
| The market prices England to Reach SF at 33.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 22.3%, a -4.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.14 · max upside if it resolves your way +$12.66 · breakeven at a true probability of 33.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Norway | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 32.0% | 30.5% | $+0.55 | $-25.09 | +$11.81 |
| The market prices Norway to Reach QF at 32.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 23.2%, a -2.8% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.09 · max upside if it resolves your way +$11.81 · breakeven at a true probability of 32.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Ghana | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 6.5% | 6.2% | $+0.07 | $-25.06 | +$1.74 |
| The market prices Ghana to Reach QF at 6.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 0.2%, a -4.3% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.06 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.74 · breakeven at a true probability of 6.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| realized $+0.00 · unrealized $+18.94 · 28/28 open | $+18.94 | ↤ click a row | ||||||