World vs Model · World Cup 2026
World vs Model · World Cup 2026
Argentina #1
Panama #27
HaitiThe informed contender: an independent forecast (not derived from the market). The engine simulates the verified bracket on real per-team World Football Elo ratings (what is Elo?, as of 2026-06-01). The group stage trusts Elo as-is; the knockout gets a disclosed ×0.6 shrink (single-elimination is coin-flippier than match-Elo). The three 2026 co-hosts get a +60 Elo home bump, and every run draws each team's rating from a ±70 Elo uncertainty band — so the favorite sits at a plausible ~16% and we don't print false-precision 0%/100% for minnows and giants. All disclosed priors, not tuned to the market. It can genuinely disagree with the crowd — but a public-ratings model is usually less sharp than a liquid market, so a big gap is more likely the model being cruder than the market being wrong. Its two books (Buy & Hold / Active) sit alongside the zero-knowledge ones below; the scorecard adjudicates.
France
Portugal
England| Team | Polymarket — de-vigged to round slots (what the WORLD prices) | Win the Cup | Edge model−world | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advance | Reach QF | Reach SF | Reach Final | Win Cup | market world | model zero-knowledge | ||
| France #3★2 | 97.1% | 51.5% | 34.5% | 21.5% | 15.7% | 15.7% | 17.7% | +2.1% |
 Spain #2★1 | 99.0% | 54.6% | 36.2% | 23.8% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 17.6% | +2.0% |
| England #4★1 | 97.4% | 49.7% | 27.9% | 17.6% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.8% | +0.8% |
| Portugal #6 | 96.6% | 43.0% | 26.7% | 12.9% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 10.2% | +0.5% |
| Argentina #1★3 | 95.9% | 47.0% | 25.9% | 15.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | +0.3% |
 Brazil #5★5 | 97.2% | 44.3% | 25.1% | 15.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | +0.2% |
 Germany #9★4 | 97.4% | 34.0% | 20.1% | 10.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | -0.2% |
 Netherlands #7 | 90.4% | 33.1% | 15.2% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | -0.3% |
 Norway #24 | 85.4% | 29.1% | 14.8% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | -0.4% |
 Japan #18 | 78.9% | 19.3% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | -0.3% |
 Belgium #8 | 95.9% | 33.1% | 12.3% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | -0.3% |
 Colombia #12 | 88.9% | 25.5% | 13.2% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | -0.3% |
 Morocco #11 | 85.9% | 21.5% | 9.5% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | -0.3% |
 Türkiye #36 | 79.4% | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | -0.3% |
 Mexico #15 | 90.9% | 23.7% | 11.5% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | -0.3% |
 USA #14 | 83.9% | 23.7% | 7.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | -0.3% |
 Uruguay #13★2 | 86.4% | 19.7% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | -0.3% |
 Switzerland #16 | 94.7% | 20.6% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | -0.2% |
 Croatia #10 | 82.9% | 17.0% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | -0.2% |
 Ecuador #22 | 89.9% | 16.6% | 6.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | -0.2% |
 Senegal #17 | 70.8% | 13.0% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | -0.2% |
 Austria #23 | 80.9% | 11.6% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | -0.2% |
 Ivory Coast #29 | 78.9% | 11.2% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
 Sweden #25 | 63.3% | 11.2% | 6.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
 Canada #28 | 83.9% | 13.0% | 4.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
 South Korea #20 | 69.8% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
 Bosnia-Herzegovina #45 | · | · | · | · | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
 Paraguay #35 | 64.3% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
 Scotland #34 | 70.8% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
 Czechia #33 | 70.3% | 9.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
 Egypt #26 | 72.8% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
 Iran #19 | 64.0% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
 Ghana #42 | 51.2% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
 Algeria #31 | 68.8% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
 DR Congo #38 | 42.7% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
 Australia #21 | 47.7% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% |
 New Zealand #48 | 32.6% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
| Haiti #47 | 12.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 2.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
 Jordan #41 | 21.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
 Curaçao #46 | 8.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
 Tunisia #32 | 39.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
 Uzbekistan #39 | 33.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
| Panama #27 | 29.1% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
 Iraq #40 | 15.1% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
 South Africa #43 | 37.7% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
 Cape Verde #44 | 31.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
 Qatar #30 | 23.1% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
 Saudi Arabia #37 | 36.7% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
Add up every team's price in a round and it sums to more than the real number of slots (32 advance, 1 champion…). That excess is the market's built-in margin — the overround, or vig. A bigger overround means a fatter, less efficient market; we strip it out (de-vig) before comparing anyone to the crowd.
| Round | Sums to | Slots | Overround |
|---|---|---|---|
| Advance | 31.855 | 32 | -0.5% |
| Reach QF | 8.931 | 8 | +11.6% |
| Reach SF | 4.867 | 4 | +21.7% |
| Reach Final | 2.562 | 2 | +28.1% |
| Win Cup | 1.024 | 1 | +2.4% |
Haiti: priced to reach_F (0.025) more than to reach_SF (0.011) — impossible. Curaçao: priced to reach_SF (0.029) more than to reach_QF (0.023) — impossible.What the informed Elo model expects, from 20k simulations of the verified bracket — these are the model's probabilities, not the market's. Projected group order is by the model; top-2 qualify, 3rd may sneak through as a best-third.
| 1 | Mexico | 99% |
| 2 | South Korea | 85% |
| 3 | Czechia | 80% |
| 4 | South Africa | 13% |
| 1 | Switzerland | 99% |
| 2 | Canada | 99% |
| 3 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 56% |
| 4 | Qatar | 8% |
| 1 | Brazil | 99% |
| 2 | Morocco | 89% |
| 3 | Scotland | 79% |
| 4 | Haiti | 9% |
| 1 | Türkiye | 89% |
| 2 | Paraguay | 72% |
| 3 | USA | 61% |
| 4 | Australia | 56% |
| 1 | Ecuador | 99% |
| 2 | Germany | 99% |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 67% |
| 4 | Curaçao | 4% |
| 1 | Netherlands | 98% |
| 2 | Japan | 94% |
| 3 | Sweden | 52% |
| 4 | Tunisia | 24% |
| 1 | Belgium | 96% |
| 2 | Iran | 83% |
| 3 | Egypt | 67% |
| 4 | New Zealand | 28% |
| 1 | Spain | >99.9% |
| 2 | Uruguay | 97% |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 18% |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 16% |
| 1 | France | 99% |
| 2 | Norway | 90% |
| 3 | Senegal | 82% |
| 4 | Iraq | 7% |
| 1 | Argentina | 100% |
| 2 | Austria | 77% |
| 3 | Algeria | 50% |
| 4 | Jordan | 30% |
| 1 | Portugal | 98% |
| 2 | Colombia | 97% |
| 3 | Uzbekistan | 43% |
| 4 | DR Congo | 23% |
| 1 | England | 100% |
| 2 | Croatia | 98% |
| 3 | Panama | 67% |
| 4 | Ghana | 5% |
ECUUSAFRASWEKORCANNEDMARCOLCROESPAUTTURALGBELCZEECUFRACANNEDCOLESPTURBELFRANEDESPTURFRAESPESP
ARGENGARGBRAENGARGPORBRAGERMEXENGARGPARSUIPORBRAJPNGERNORMEXSCOENGSENARGURUPARIRNSUIEGYPORPANEvery group's matchups by matchday, straight from the verified 2026 draw. Exact kickoff times & venues live on FIFA ↗; knockout fixtures depend on results, so they appear once the groups resolve.
MEXvCZEKORvRSAMEXvRSACZEvKORMEXvKORRSAvCZECANvBIHSUIvQATCANvQATBIHvSUICANvSUIQATvBIHBRAvSCOMARvHAIBRAvHAISCOvMARBRAvMARHAIvSCOUSAvAUSPARvTURUSAvTURAUSvPARUSAvPARTURvAUSGERvCUWCIVvECUGERvECUCUWvCIVGERvCIVECUvCUWNEDvJPNSWEvTUNNEDvTUNJPNvSWENEDvSWETUNvJPNBELvNZLEGYvIRNBELvIRNNZLvEGYBELvEGYIRNvNZLESPvURUCPVvKSAESPvKSAURUvCPVESPvCPVKSAvURUFRAvNORSENvIRQFRAvIRQNORvSENFRAvSENIRQvNORARGvJORALGvAUTARGvAUTJORvALGARGvALGAUTvJORPORvCOLCODvUZBPORvUZBCOLvCODPORvCODUZBvCOLENGvPANCROvGHAENGvGHAPANvCROENGvCROGHAvPANA secondary, "what-if" view — purely to put a number on the disagreements above. No real money: a $1,000 paper book, conviction-weighted and dollar-neutral. Edges are shown net of a ~1c half-spread — a gap that doesn't clear the cost to trade it is sized to zero. Buy & Hold enters once at day 0 and holds to resolution; Active Trading rebalances each matchday. Methodology →
Buy & Hold — entered once at day 0, held to each market's resolution, marked to today's prices. Click a row for the why; click a header to sort.
| Side | Team | Round | Resolves | Entry | Now | PnL | Max ↓ | Max ↑ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | Argentina | Advance | Jun 27 | 95.5% | 95.5% | $+0.00 | $-51.67 | +$2.43 |
| The market prices Argentina to Advance at 95.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.7% — a +4.2% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $51.67 · max upside if it resolves your way +$2.43 · breakeven at a true probability of 95.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Switzerland | Advance | Jun 27 | 93.6% | 94.3% | $+0.35 | $-46.80 | +$3.20 |
| The market prices Switzerland to Advance at 93.6%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 98.3% — a +4.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $46.80 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.20 · breakeven at a true probability of 93.6% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Belgium | Advance | Jun 27 | 95.9% | 95.5% | $-0.19 | $-45.55 | +$1.95 |
| The market prices Belgium to Advance at 95.9%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.7% — a +4.2% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $45.55 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.95 · breakeven at a true probability of 95.9% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Portugal | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.2% | 96.2% | $+0.00 | $-41.73 | +$1.67 |
| The market prices Portugal to Advance at 96.2%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +3.8% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $41.73 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.67 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.2% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Panama | Advance | Jun 27 | 28.5% | 29.0% | $-0.29 | $-41.11 | +$16.39 |
| The market prices Panama to Advance at 28.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 25.3% — a -3.7% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $41.11 · max upside if it resolves your way +$16.39 · breakeven at a true probability of 28.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Uzbekistan | Advance | Jun 27 | 31.5% | 33.0% | $-0.89 | $-40.48 | +$18.62 |
| The market prices Uzbekistan to Advance at 31.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 29.4% — a -3.6% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $40.48 · max upside if it resolves your way +$18.62 · breakeven at a true probability of 31.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Cape Verde | Advance | Jun 27 | 32.0% | 31.0% | $+0.59 | $-40.32 | +$18.98 |
| The market prices Cape Verde to Advance at 32.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 27.3% — a -3.7% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $40.32 · max upside if it resolves your way +$18.98 · breakeven at a true probability of 32.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | New Zealand | Advance | Jun 27 | 32.5% | 32.5% | $-0.00 | $-40.16 | +$19.34 |
| The market prices New Zealand to Advance at 32.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 28.9% — a -3.6% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $40.16 · max upside if it resolves your way +$19.34 · breakeven at a true probability of 32.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Saudi Arabia | Advance | Jun 27 | 34.5% | 36.5% | $-1.20 | $-39.23 | +$20.67 |
| The market prices Saudi Arabia to Advance at 34.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 33.0% — a -3.5% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $39.23 · max upside if it resolves your way +$20.67 · breakeven at a true probability of 34.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Qatar | Advance | Jun 27 | 21.0% | 23.0% | $-0.99 | $-39.11 | +$10.39 |
| The market prices Qatar to Advance at 21.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 19.4% — a -3.6% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $39.11 · max upside if it resolves your way +$10.39 · breakeven at a true probability of 21.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Jordan | Advance | Jun 27 | 19.0% | 21.0% | $-0.93 | $-37.50 | +$8.80 |
| The market prices Jordan to Advance at 19.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 17.5% — a -3.5% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$8.80 · breakeven at a true probability of 19.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Mexico | Advance | Jun 27 | 90.5% | 90.5% | $+0.00 | $-37.47 | +$3.93 |
| The market prices Mexico to Advance at 90.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 93.7% — a +3.2% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.47 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.93 · breakeven at a true probability of 90.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Germany | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.5% | 97.0% | $+0.19 | $-37.23 | +$1.37 |
| The market prices Germany to Advance at 96.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +2.9% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.23 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.37 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | South Africa | Advance | Jun 27 | 38.0% | 37.5% | $+0.30 | $-37.08 | +$22.72 |
| The market prices South Africa to Advance at 38.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 34.0% — a -3.5% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.08 · max upside if it resolves your way +$22.72 · breakeven at a true probability of 38.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Tunisia | Advance | Jun 27 | 38.5% | 39.0% | $-0.30 | $-36.72 | +$22.98 |
| The market prices Tunisia to Advance at 38.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 35.6% — a -3.4% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $36.72 · max upside if it resolves your way +$22.98 · breakeven at a true probability of 38.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Brazil | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.5% | 96.8% | $+0.09 | $-36.48 | +$1.32 |
| The market prices Brazil to Advance at 96.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +3.1% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $36.48 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.32 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Netherlands | Advance | Jun 27 | 90.0% | 90.0% | $+0.00 | $-36.00 | +$4.00 |
| The market prices Netherlands to Advance at 90.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 93.1% — a +3.1% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $36.00 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.00 · breakeven at a true probability of 90.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Ecuador | Advance | Jun 27 | 89.0% | 89.5% | $+0.19 | $-33.11 | +$4.09 |
| The market prices Ecuador to Advance at 89.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 92.5% — a +3.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $33.11 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.09 · breakeven at a true probability of 89.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | DR Congo | Advance | Jun 27 | 43.0% | 42.5% | $+0.28 | $-32.49 | +$24.51 |
| The market prices DR Congo to Advance at 43.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 39.3% — a -3.2% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $32.49 · max upside if it resolves your way +$24.51 · breakeven at a true probability of 43.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Iraq | Advance | Jun 27 | 14.5% | 15.0% | $-0.19 | $-32.32 | +$5.48 |
| The market prices Iraq to Advance at 14.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 11.9% — a -3.1% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $32.32 · max upside if it resolves your way +$5.48 · breakeven at a true probability of 14.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | France | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.8% | 96.7% | $-0.03 | $-31.85 | +$1.05 |
| The market prices France to Advance at 96.8%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +3.2% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $31.85 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.05 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.8% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Haiti | Advance | Jun 27 | 13.0% | 12.5% | $+0.17 | $-30.02 | +$4.49 |
| The market prices Haiti to Advance at 13.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 9.6% — a -2.9% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $30.02 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.49 · breakeven at a true probability of 13.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Colombia | Advance | Jun 27 | 87.5% | 88.5% | $+0.33 | $-28.70 | +$4.10 |
| The market prices Colombia to Advance at 87.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 91.3% — a +2.9% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $28.70 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.10 · breakeven at a true probability of 87.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Switzerland | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 22.0% | 23.0% | $-0.34 | $-26.68 | +$7.52 |
| The market prices Switzerland to Reach QF at 22.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 20.0% — a -3.0% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $26.68 · max upside if it resolves your way +$7.52 · breakeven at a true probability of 22.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Türkiye | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 21.5% | 22.5% | $-0.34 | $-26.69 | +$7.31 |
| The market prices Türkiye to Reach QF at 21.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 19.5% — a -3.0% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $26.69 · max upside if it resolves your way +$7.31 · breakeven at a true probability of 21.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Uruguay | Advance | Jun 27 | 86.5% | 86.0% | $-0.15 | $-25.95 | +$4.05 |
| The market prices Uruguay to Advance at 86.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 88.4% — a +2.4% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $25.95 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.05 · breakeven at a true probability of 86.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Morocco | Advance | Jun 27 | 86.0% | 85.5% | $-0.14 | $-24.42 | +$3.98 |
| The market prices Morocco to Advance at 86.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 87.8% — a +2.3% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $24.42 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.98 · breakeven at a true probability of 86.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Norway | Advance | Jun 27 | 85.5% | 85.0% | $-0.14 | $-23.09 | +$3.92 |
| The market prices Norway to Advance at 85.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 87.2% — a +2.2% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $23.09 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.92 · breakeven at a true probability of 85.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| realized $+0.00 · unrealized $-3.61 · 28/28 open | $-3.61 | ↤ click a row | ||||||
Active Trading — rebalanced each matchday; current open positions marked to today's prices. Click a row for the why; click a header to sort.
| Side | Team | Round | Resolves | Entry | Now | PnL | Max ↓ | Max ↑ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | Argentina | Advance | Jun 27 | 95.5% | 95.5% | $+0.00 | $-51.67 | +$2.43 |
| The market prices Argentina to Advance at 95.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.7% — a +4.2% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $51.67 · max upside if it resolves your way +$2.43 · breakeven at a true probability of 95.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Switzerland | Advance | Jun 27 | 93.6% | 94.3% | $+0.35 | $-46.80 | +$3.20 |
| The market prices Switzerland to Advance at 93.6%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 98.3% — a +4.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $46.80 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.20 · breakeven at a true probability of 93.6% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Belgium | Advance | Jun 27 | 95.9% | 95.5% | $-0.19 | $-45.55 | +$1.95 |
| The market prices Belgium to Advance at 95.9%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.7% — a +4.2% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $45.55 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.95 · breakeven at a true probability of 95.9% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Portugal | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.2% | 96.2% | $+0.00 | $-41.73 | +$1.67 |
| The market prices Portugal to Advance at 96.2%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +3.8% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $41.73 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.67 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.2% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Panama | Advance | Jun 27 | 28.5% | 29.0% | $-0.29 | $-41.11 | +$16.39 |
| The market prices Panama to Advance at 28.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 25.3% — a -3.7% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $41.11 · max upside if it resolves your way +$16.39 · breakeven at a true probability of 28.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Uzbekistan | Advance | Jun 27 | 31.5% | 33.0% | $-0.89 | $-40.48 | +$18.62 |
| The market prices Uzbekistan to Advance at 31.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 29.4% — a -3.6% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $40.48 · max upside if it resolves your way +$18.62 · breakeven at a true probability of 31.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Cape Verde | Advance | Jun 27 | 32.0% | 31.0% | $+0.59 | $-40.32 | +$18.98 |
| The market prices Cape Verde to Advance at 32.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 27.3% — a -3.7% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $40.32 · max upside if it resolves your way +$18.98 · breakeven at a true probability of 32.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | New Zealand | Advance | Jun 27 | 32.5% | 32.5% | $-0.00 | $-40.16 | +$19.34 |
| The market prices New Zealand to Advance at 32.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 28.9% — a -3.6% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $40.16 · max upside if it resolves your way +$19.34 · breakeven at a true probability of 32.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Saudi Arabia | Advance | Jun 27 | 34.5% | 36.5% | $-1.20 | $-39.23 | +$20.67 |
| The market prices Saudi Arabia to Advance at 34.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 33.0% — a -3.5% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $39.23 · max upside if it resolves your way +$20.67 · breakeven at a true probability of 34.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Qatar | Advance | Jun 27 | 21.0% | 23.0% | $-0.99 | $-39.11 | +$10.39 |
| The market prices Qatar to Advance at 21.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 19.4% — a -3.6% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $39.11 · max upside if it resolves your way +$10.39 · breakeven at a true probability of 21.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Jordan | Advance | Jun 27 | 19.0% | 21.0% | $-0.93 | $-37.50 | +$8.80 |
| The market prices Jordan to Advance at 19.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 17.5% — a -3.5% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$8.80 · breakeven at a true probability of 19.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Mexico | Advance | Jun 27 | 90.5% | 90.5% | $+0.00 | $-37.47 | +$3.93 |
| The market prices Mexico to Advance at 90.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 93.7% — a +3.2% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.47 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.93 · breakeven at a true probability of 90.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Germany | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.5% | 97.0% | $+0.19 | $-37.23 | +$1.37 |
| The market prices Germany to Advance at 96.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +2.9% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.23 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.37 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | South Africa | Advance | Jun 27 | 38.0% | 37.5% | $+0.30 | $-37.08 | +$22.72 |
| The market prices South Africa to Advance at 38.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 34.0% — a -3.5% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.08 · max upside if it resolves your way +$22.72 · breakeven at a true probability of 38.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Tunisia | Advance | Jun 27 | 38.5% | 39.0% | $-0.30 | $-36.72 | +$22.98 |
| The market prices Tunisia to Advance at 38.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 35.6% — a -3.4% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $36.72 · max upside if it resolves your way +$22.98 · breakeven at a true probability of 38.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Brazil | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.5% | 96.8% | $+0.09 | $-36.48 | +$1.32 |
| The market prices Brazil to Advance at 96.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +3.1% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $36.48 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.32 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Netherlands | Advance | Jun 27 | 90.0% | 90.0% | $+0.00 | $-36.00 | +$4.00 |
| The market prices Netherlands to Advance at 90.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 93.1% — a +3.1% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $36.00 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.00 · breakeven at a true probability of 90.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Ecuador | Advance | Jun 27 | 89.0% | 89.5% | $+0.19 | $-33.11 | +$4.09 |
| The market prices Ecuador to Advance at 89.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 92.5% — a +3.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $33.11 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.09 · breakeven at a true probability of 89.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | DR Congo | Advance | Jun 27 | 43.0% | 42.5% | $+0.28 | $-32.49 | +$24.51 |
| The market prices DR Congo to Advance at 43.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 39.3% — a -3.2% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $32.49 · max upside if it resolves your way +$24.51 · breakeven at a true probability of 43.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Iraq | Advance | Jun 27 | 14.5% | 15.0% | $-0.19 | $-32.32 | +$5.48 |
| The market prices Iraq to Advance at 14.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 11.9% — a -3.1% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $32.32 · max upside if it resolves your way +$5.48 · breakeven at a true probability of 14.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | France | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.8% | 96.7% | $-0.03 | $-31.85 | +$1.05 |
| The market prices France to Advance at 96.8%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a +3.2% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $31.85 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.05 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.8% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Haiti | Advance | Jun 27 | 13.0% | 12.5% | $+0.17 | $-30.02 | +$4.49 |
| The market prices Haiti to Advance at 13.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 9.6% — a -2.9% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $30.02 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.49 · breakeven at a true probability of 13.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Colombia | Advance | Jun 27 | 87.5% | 88.5% | $+0.33 | $-28.70 | +$4.10 |
| The market prices Colombia to Advance at 87.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 91.3% — a +2.9% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $28.70 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.10 · breakeven at a true probability of 87.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Switzerland | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 22.0% | 23.0% | $-0.34 | $-26.68 | +$7.52 |
| The market prices Switzerland to Reach QF at 22.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 20.0% — a -3.0% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $26.68 · max upside if it resolves your way +$7.52 · breakeven at a true probability of 22.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Türkiye | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 21.5% | 22.5% | $-0.34 | $-26.69 | +$7.31 |
| The market prices Türkiye to Reach QF at 21.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 19.5% — a -3.0% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $26.69 · max upside if it resolves your way +$7.31 · breakeven at a true probability of 21.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Uruguay | Advance | Jun 27 | 86.5% | 86.0% | $-0.15 | $-25.95 | +$4.05 |
| The market prices Uruguay to Advance at 86.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 88.4% — a +2.4% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $25.95 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.05 · breakeven at a true probability of 86.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Morocco | Advance | Jun 27 | 86.0% | 85.5% | $-0.14 | $-24.42 | +$3.98 |
| The market prices Morocco to Advance at 86.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 87.8% — a +2.3% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $24.42 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.98 · breakeven at a true probability of 86.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Norway | Advance | Jun 27 | 85.5% | 85.0% | $-0.14 | $-23.09 | +$3.92 |
| The market prices Norway to Advance at 85.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 87.2% — a +2.2% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $23.09 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.92 · breakeven at a true probability of 85.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| realized $+0.00 · unrealized $-3.61 · 28/28 open | $-3.61 | ↤ click a row | ||||||
| Date | Opened | Settled | Step PnL | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 28 | 0 | $+0.00 | $+0.00 |
Elo · Buy & Hold — entered once at day 0, held to each market's resolution, marked to today's prices. Knockout rounds only (advance excluded); the rows are largely one correlated 'results-vs-reputation' bet, not diversified breadth. Click a row for the why; click a header to sort.
| Side | Team | Round | Resolves | Entry | Now | PnL | Max ↓ | Max ↑ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | Ecuador | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 18.0% | 18.5% | $+1.78 | $-63.97 | +$291.43 |
| The market prices Ecuador to Reach QF at 18.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 28.7%, a +11.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $63.97 · max upside if it resolves your way +$291.43 · breakeven at a true probability of 18.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | England | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 55.5% | 55.5% | $-0.00 | $-56.56 | +$70.54 |
| The market prices England to Reach QF at 55.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 38.9%, a -9.8% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $56.56 · max upside if it resolves your way +$70.54 · breakeven at a true probability of 55.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Portugal | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 48.5% | 48.0% | $+0.48 | $-49.90 | +$47.00 |
| The market prices Portugal to Reach QF at 48.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 33.8%, a -8.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $49.90 · max upside if it resolves your way +$47.00 · breakeven at a true probability of 48.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Belgium | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 37.0% | 37.0% | $-0.00 | $-48.95 | +$28.75 |
| The market prices Belgium to Reach QF at 37.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 23.5%, a -8.6% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $48.95 · max upside if it resolves your way +$28.75 · breakeven at a true probability of 37.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Argentina | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 30.5% | 31.5% | $+1.49 | $-45.54 | +$103.76 |
| The market prices Argentina to Reach SF at 30.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 35.0%, a +8.1% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $45.54 · max upside if it resolves your way +$103.76 · breakeven at a true probability of 30.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Iran | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 4.5% | 6.5% | $+20.01 | $-45.02 | +$955.48 |
| The market prices Iran to Reach QF at 4.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 13.1%, a +6.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $45.02 · max upside if it resolves your way +$955.48 · breakeven at a true probability of 4.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | USA | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 23.0% | 26.5% | $-2.03 | $-44.66 | +$13.34 |
| The market prices USA to Reach QF at 23.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 11.5%, a -11.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $44.66 · max upside if it resolves your way +$13.34 · breakeven at a true probability of 23.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Croatia | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 19.0% | 19.0% | $+0.00 | $-43.43 | +$185.17 |
| The market prices Croatia to Reach QF at 19.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 26.0%, a +8.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $43.43 · max upside if it resolves your way +$185.17 · breakeven at a true probability of 19.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Brazil | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 50.0% | 49.5% | $+0.40 | $-39.80 | +$39.80 |
| The market prices Brazil to Reach QF at 50.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 37.1%, a -6.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $39.80 · max upside if it resolves your way +$39.80 · breakeven at a true probability of 50.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Mexico | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 24.5% | 26.5% | $+3.16 | $-38.69 | +$119.21 |
| The market prices Mexico to Reach QF at 24.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 30.2%, a +5.5% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $38.69 · max upside if it resolves your way +$119.21 · breakeven at a true probability of 24.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Portugal | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 31.0% | 32.5% | $-0.80 | $-36.57 | +$16.43 |
| The market prices Portugal to Reach SF at 31.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 18.5%, a -7.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $36.57 · max upside if it resolves your way +$16.43 · breakeven at a true probability of 31.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Colombia | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 28.0% | 28.5% | $+0.64 | $-35.64 | +$91.66 |
| The market prices Colombia to Reach QF at 28.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 32.9%, a +6.3% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $35.64 · max upside if it resolves your way +$91.66 · breakeven at a true probability of 28.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Ecuador | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 8.0% | 7.4% | $-2.63 | $-35.06 | +$403.24 |
| The market prices Ecuador to Reach SF at 8.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 14.0%, a +6.9% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $35.06 · max upside if it resolves your way +$403.24 · breakeven at a true probability of 8.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Canada | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 14.5% | 14.5% | $+0.00 | $-34.50 | +$203.40 |
| The market prices Canada to Reach QF at 14.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 20.3%, a +6.3% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $34.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$203.40 · breakeven at a true probability of 14.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Germany | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 24.0% | 24.5% | $-0.22 | $-32.76 | +$10.34 |
| The market prices Germany to Reach SF at 24.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 13.2%, a -5.9% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $32.76 · max upside if it resolves your way +$10.34 · breakeven at a true probability of 24.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Brazil | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 31.0% | 30.5% | $+0.22 | $-30.50 | +$13.70 |
| The market prices Brazil to Reach SF at 31.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 19.6%, a -4.4% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $30.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$13.70 · breakeven at a true probability of 31.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | France | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 43.5% | 42.0% | $+0.78 | $-29.49 | +$22.71 |
| The market prices France to Reach SF at 43.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 30.5%, a -3.1% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $29.49 · max upside if it resolves your way +$22.71 · breakeven at a true probability of 43.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Germany | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 37.0% | 38.0% | $-0.46 | $-28.98 | +$17.02 |
| The market prices Germany to Reach QF at 37.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 27.3%, a -5.8% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $28.98 · max upside if it resolves your way +$17.02 · breakeven at a true probability of 37.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Paraguay | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 10.0% | 9.0% | $-2.87 | $-28.73 | +$258.57 |
| The market prices Paraguay to Reach QF at 10.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 15.2%, a +6.1% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $28.73 · max upside if it resolves your way +$258.57 · breakeven at a true probability of 10.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Panama | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 3.3% | 3.6% | $+2.95 | $-27.77 | +$813.83 |
| The market prices Panama to Reach QF at 3.3%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 8.9%, a +4.7% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $27.77 · max upside if it resolves your way +$813.83 · breakeven at a true probability of 3.3% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | France | Win Cup | Jul 19 | 16.0% | 16.1% | $-0.03 | $-26.48 | +$5.02 |
| The market prices France to Win Cup at 16.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 9.6%, a -5.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $26.48 · max upside if it resolves your way +$5.02 · breakeven at a true probability of 16.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Colombia | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 14.5% | 16.0% | $+2.66 | $-25.74 | +$151.76 |
| The market prices Colombia to Reach SF at 14.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 17.9%, a +3.7% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.74 · max upside if it resolves your way +$151.76 · breakeven at a true probability of 14.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Türkiye | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 21.5% | 22.5% | $+1.19 | $-25.50 | +$93.10 |
| The market prices Türkiye to Reach QF at 21.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 25.1%, a +4.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$93.10 · breakeven at a true probability of 21.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Croatia | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 8.9% | 8.0% | $-2.69 | $-25.22 | +$258.18 |
| The market prices Croatia to Reach SF at 8.9%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 13.0%, a +5.5% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.22 · max upside if it resolves your way +$258.18 · breakeven at a true probability of 8.9% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Australia | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 5.0% | 6.0% | $+5.03 | $-25.17 | +$478.23 |
| The market prices Australia to Reach QF at 5.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 10.0%, a +3.6% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.17 · max upside if it resolves your way +$478.23 · breakeven at a true probability of 5.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | England | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 33.5% | 34.0% | $-0.19 | $-25.14 | +$12.66 |
| The market prices England to Reach SF at 33.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 22.8%, a -4.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.14 · max upside if it resolves your way +$12.66 · breakeven at a true probability of 33.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Norway | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 32.0% | 32.5% | $-0.18 | $-25.09 | +$11.81 |
| The market prices Norway to Reach QF at 32.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 23.5%, a -4.7% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.09 · max upside if it resolves your way +$11.81 · breakeven at a true probability of 32.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Ghana | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 6.5% | 7.5% | $-0.27 | $-25.06 | +$1.74 |
| The market prices Ghana to Reach QF at 6.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 0.2%, a -5.5% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.06 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.74 · breakeven at a true probability of 6.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| realized $+0.00 · unrealized $+28.42 · 28/28 open | $+28.42 | ↤ click a row | ||||||
Elo · Active Trading — rebalanced each matchday; current open positions marked to today's prices. Knockout rounds only (advance excluded); the rows are largely one correlated 'results-vs-reputation' bet, not diversified breadth. Click a row for the why; click a header to sort.
| Side | Team | Round | Resolves | Entry | Now | PnL | Max ↓ | Max ↑ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | Ecuador | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 18.0% | 18.5% | $+1.78 | $-63.97 | +$291.43 |
| The market prices Ecuador to Reach QF at 18.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 28.7%, a +11.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $63.97 · max upside if it resolves your way +$291.43 · breakeven at a true probability of 18.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | England | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 55.5% | 55.5% | $-0.00 | $-56.56 | +$70.54 |
| The market prices England to Reach QF at 55.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 38.9%, a -9.8% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $56.56 · max upside if it resolves your way +$70.54 · breakeven at a true probability of 55.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Portugal | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 48.5% | 48.0% | $+0.48 | $-49.90 | +$47.00 |
| The market prices Portugal to Reach QF at 48.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 33.8%, a -8.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $49.90 · max upside if it resolves your way +$47.00 · breakeven at a true probability of 48.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Belgium | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 37.0% | 37.0% | $-0.00 | $-48.95 | +$28.75 |
| The market prices Belgium to Reach QF at 37.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 23.5%, a -8.6% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $48.95 · max upside if it resolves your way +$28.75 · breakeven at a true probability of 37.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Argentina | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 30.5% | 31.5% | $+1.49 | $-45.54 | +$103.76 |
| The market prices Argentina to Reach SF at 30.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 35.0%, a +8.1% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $45.54 · max upside if it resolves your way +$103.76 · breakeven at a true probability of 30.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Iran | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 4.5% | 6.5% | $+20.01 | $-45.02 | +$955.48 |
| The market prices Iran to Reach QF at 4.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 13.1%, a +6.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $45.02 · max upside if it resolves your way +$955.48 · breakeven at a true probability of 4.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | USA | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 23.0% | 26.5% | $-2.03 | $-44.66 | +$13.34 |
| The market prices USA to Reach QF at 23.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 11.5%, a -11.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $44.66 · max upside if it resolves your way +$13.34 · breakeven at a true probability of 23.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Croatia | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 19.0% | 19.0% | $+0.00 | $-43.43 | +$185.17 |
| The market prices Croatia to Reach QF at 19.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 26.0%, a +8.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $43.43 · max upside if it resolves your way +$185.17 · breakeven at a true probability of 19.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Brazil | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 50.0% | 49.5% | $+0.40 | $-39.80 | +$39.80 |
| The market prices Brazil to Reach QF at 50.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 37.1%, a -6.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $39.80 · max upside if it resolves your way +$39.80 · breakeven at a true probability of 50.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Mexico | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 24.5% | 26.5% | $+3.16 | $-38.69 | +$119.21 |
| The market prices Mexico to Reach QF at 24.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 30.2%, a +5.5% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $38.69 · max upside if it resolves your way +$119.21 · breakeven at a true probability of 24.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Portugal | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 31.0% | 32.5% | $-0.80 | $-36.57 | +$16.43 |
| The market prices Portugal to Reach SF at 31.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 18.5%, a -7.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $36.57 · max upside if it resolves your way +$16.43 · breakeven at a true probability of 31.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Colombia | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 28.0% | 28.5% | $+0.64 | $-35.64 | +$91.66 |
| The market prices Colombia to Reach QF at 28.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 32.9%, a +6.3% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $35.64 · max upside if it resolves your way +$91.66 · breakeven at a true probability of 28.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Ecuador | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 8.0% | 7.4% | $-2.63 | $-35.06 | +$403.24 |
| The market prices Ecuador to Reach SF at 8.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 14.0%, a +6.9% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $35.06 · max upside if it resolves your way +$403.24 · breakeven at a true probability of 8.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Canada | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 14.5% | 14.5% | $+0.00 | $-34.50 | +$203.40 |
| The market prices Canada to Reach QF at 14.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 20.3%, a +6.3% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $34.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$203.40 · breakeven at a true probability of 14.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Germany | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 24.0% | 24.5% | $-0.22 | $-32.76 | +$10.34 |
| The market prices Germany to Reach SF at 24.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 13.2%, a -5.9% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $32.76 · max upside if it resolves your way +$10.34 · breakeven at a true probability of 24.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Brazil | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 31.0% | 30.5% | $+0.22 | $-30.50 | +$13.70 |
| The market prices Brazil to Reach SF at 31.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 19.6%, a -4.4% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $30.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$13.70 · breakeven at a true probability of 31.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | France | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 43.5% | 42.0% | $+0.78 | $-29.49 | +$22.71 |
| The market prices France to Reach SF at 43.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 30.5%, a -3.1% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $29.49 · max upside if it resolves your way +$22.71 · breakeven at a true probability of 43.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Germany | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 37.0% | 38.0% | $-0.46 | $-28.98 | +$17.02 |
| The market prices Germany to Reach QF at 37.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 27.3%, a -5.8% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $28.98 · max upside if it resolves your way +$17.02 · breakeven at a true probability of 37.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Paraguay | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 10.0% | 9.0% | $-2.87 | $-28.73 | +$258.57 |
| The market prices Paraguay to Reach QF at 10.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 15.2%, a +6.1% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $28.73 · max upside if it resolves your way +$258.57 · breakeven at a true probability of 10.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Panama | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 3.3% | 3.6% | $+2.95 | $-27.77 | +$813.83 |
| The market prices Panama to Reach QF at 3.3%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 8.9%, a +4.7% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $27.77 · max upside if it resolves your way +$813.83 · breakeven at a true probability of 3.3% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | France | Win Cup | Jul 19 | 16.0% | 16.1% | $-0.03 | $-26.48 | +$5.02 |
| The market prices France to Win Cup at 16.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 9.6%, a -5.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $26.48 · max upside if it resolves your way +$5.02 · breakeven at a true probability of 16.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Colombia | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 14.5% | 16.0% | $+2.66 | $-25.74 | +$151.76 |
| The market prices Colombia to Reach SF at 14.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 17.9%, a +3.7% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.74 · max upside if it resolves your way +$151.76 · breakeven at a true probability of 14.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Türkiye | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 21.5% | 22.5% | $+1.19 | $-25.50 | +$93.10 |
| The market prices Türkiye to Reach QF at 21.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 25.1%, a +4.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$93.10 · breakeven at a true probability of 21.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Croatia | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 8.9% | 8.0% | $-2.69 | $-25.22 | +$258.18 |
| The market prices Croatia to Reach SF at 8.9%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 13.0%, a +5.5% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.22 · max upside if it resolves your way +$258.18 · breakeven at a true probability of 8.9% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Australia | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 5.0% | 6.0% | $+5.03 | $-25.17 | +$478.23 |
| The market prices Australia to Reach QF at 5.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 10.0%, a +3.6% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.17 · max upside if it resolves your way +$478.23 · breakeven at a true probability of 5.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | England | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 33.5% | 34.0% | $-0.19 | $-25.14 | +$12.66 |
| The market prices England to Reach SF at 33.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 22.8%, a -4.2% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.14 · max upside if it resolves your way +$12.66 · breakeven at a true probability of 33.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Norway | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 32.0% | 32.5% | $-0.18 | $-25.09 | +$11.81 |
| The market prices Norway to Reach QF at 32.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 23.5%, a -4.7% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.09 · max upside if it resolves your way +$11.81 · breakeven at a true probability of 32.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Ghana | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 6.5% | 7.5% | $-0.27 | $-25.06 | +$1.74 |
| The market prices Ghana to Reach QF at 6.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 0.2%, a -5.5% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.06 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.74 · breakeven at a true probability of 6.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| realized $+0.00 · unrealized $+28.42 · 28/28 open | $+28.42 | ↤ click a row | ||||||