World vs Model · World Cup 2026
World vs Model · World Cup 2026
ESP +83.6 pp to win (16.4% → 100.0%)
ARG -12.1 pp to win (12.1% → 0.0%)
FRA -9.9 pp to win (9.9% → 0.0%)
ENG -6.1 pp to win (6.1% → 0.0%)
BRA -5.1 pp to win (5.1% → 0.0%)
POR -4.5 pp to win (4.5% → 0.0%)ESP 0-0 
CPV (draw) (pre-match Elo: 88% / draw 9% / 3% · 3.5 bits)
ECU 0-0 
CUW (draw) (pre-match Elo: 84% / draw 11% / 5% · 3.1 bits)ENG 0-0 
GHA (draw) (pre-match Polymarket: 82% / draw 12% / 5% · 3.0 bits)
QAT 1-1 
SUI (draw) (pre-match Polymarket: 6% / draw 12% / 82% · 3.0 bits)
RSA 1-0 
KOR (pre-match Elo: 16% / draw 22% / 62% · 2.7 bits)
AUS 2-0 
TUR (pre-match Polymarket: 18% / draw 26% / 57% · 2.5 bits)Surprise is measured in bits — basically, how many coin flips this is worth. If someone guesses a coin and gets it right, that's 1 bit of luck. Getting two in a row is 2 bits (1-in-4). Three in a row is 3 bits (1-in-8). So a 3.5-bit result is roughly like calling a coin right three-and-a-half times in a row — that's how shocking the prior thought it was. Each upset shows the prior used: pre-match Polymarket when we have a captured pre-match snapshot from the CLOB history (the sharper benchmark — real money, integrating every trader's info), otherwise pre-match Elo (a reproducible fallback). The frozen kickoff call is the headline; this is the living companion.
What the informed Elo model expects, from 20k simulations of the verified bracket, with all 72 group results held fixed and the model re-forecast from there — these are the model's probabilities, not the market's. A 20k-run simulation is a distribution, not a single prediction, so we lead with the spread of outcomes and keep the single most-likely bracket for last.
Argentina vs Spain — yet that exact pairing lands in only 100.0% of the runs. No single outcome is likely; the spread is the forecast. These bars are the whole distribution — the bracket lower down is just its one most-likely path.ESP100.0%
MEX0.0%RSA0.0%KOR0.0%
CZE0.0%
CAN0.0%
BIH0.0%QAT0.0%SUI0.0%BRA0.0%
MAR0.0%
HAI0.0%ESP100%ARG0%FRA0%ENG0%SUI0%MAR0%
BEL0%
NOR0%MEX0%CAN0%BRA0%
USA0%
PAR0%
EGY0%POR0%
COL0%RSA0%BIH0%AUS0%
GER0%
CIV0%ECU0%
NED0%
JPN0%
SWE0%CPV0%
SEN0%
ALG0%
AUT0%
COD0%
CRO0%GHA0%KOR0%CZE0%QAT0%HAI0%
SCO0%TUR0%CUW0%
TUN0%
IRN0%
NZL0%
KSA0%
URU0%
IRQ0%
JOR0%
UZB0%
PAN0%top-2 advanced, 3rd advanced as a best-third, eliminated. columns: W-D-L · GD · Pts.
| 1 | Mexico | 3-0-0 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | South Africa | 1-1-1 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | South Korea | 1-0-2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Czechia | 0-1-2 | -4 | 1 |
| 1 | Switzerland | 2-1-0 | +4 | 7 |
| 2 | Canada | 1-1-1 | +5 | 4 |
| 3 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 1-1-1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Qatar | 0-1-2 | -8 | 1 |
| 1 | Brazil | 2-1-0 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Morocco | 2-1-0 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Scotland | 1-0-2 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Haiti | 0-0-3 | -6 | 0 |
| 1 | USA | 2-0-1 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Australia | 1-1-1 | +0 | 4 |
| 3 | Paraguay | 1-1-1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 1-0-2 | -2 | 3 |
| 1 | Germany | 2-0-1 | +6 | 6 |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 2-0-1 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 1-1-1 | +0 | 4 |
| 4 | Curaçao | 0-1-2 | -8 | 1 |
| 1 | Netherlands | 2-1-0 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Japan | 1-2-0 | +4 | 5 |
| 3 | Sweden | 1-1-1 | +0 | 4 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 0-0-3 | -10 | 0 |
| 1 | Belgium | 1-2-0 | +4 | 5 |
| 2 | Egypt | 1-2-0 | +2 | 5 |
| 3 | Iran | 0-3-0 | +0 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 0-1-2 | -6 | 1 |
| 1 | Spain | 2-1-0 | +5 | 7 |
| 2 | Cape Verde | 0-3-0 | +0 | 3 |
| 3 | Uruguay | 0-2-1 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 0-2-1 | -4 | 2 |
| 1 | France | 3-0-0 | +8 | 9 |
| 2 | Norway | 2-0-1 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Senegal | 1-0-2 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Iraq | 0-0-3 | -11 | 0 |
| 1 | Argentina | 3-0-0 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 | Austria | 1-1-1 | +0 | 4 |
| 3 | Algeria | 1-1-1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Jordan | 0-0-3 | -5 | 0 |
| 1 | Colombia | 2-1-0 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Portugal | 1-2-0 | +5 | 5 |
| 3 | DR Congo | 1-1-1 | +1 | 4 |
| 4 | Uzbekistan | 0-0-3 | -9 | 0 |
| 1 | England | 2-1-0 | +4 | 7 |
| 2 | Croatia | 2-0-1 | +0 | 6 |
| 3 | Ghana | 1-1-1 | +0 | 4 |
| 4 | Panama | 0-0-3 | -4 | 0 |
GERPARFRASWERSACANNEDMARPORCROESPAUTUSABIHBELSENPARFRACANMARPORESPUSABELFRAMARESPBELFRAESPESP
ARGENGARGNORENGARGSUIBRANORMEXENGARGEGYSUICOLBRAJPNCIVNORMEXECUENGCODARGCPVAUSEGYSUIALGCOLGHAThis is the modal path — it plays out in only a minority of runs. The title race and how-far-each-team-goes charts above are the fuller, more honest read of the simulation.
The bracket above is a projection; this keeps it honest. Each side fills the bracket from its own probabilities (the top teams per round); a correctly placed team scores that round's weight — Last-32 ×1 · QF ×4 · SF ×8 · Final ×16 · Champion ×32. Forecasts are timestamped pre-tournament; 5 rounds scored — points are live.
🏆 To lift the trophy — Market: ESP · Informed · Elo: ESP (they can agree on the favourite yet score very differently on the path there)
| Round | Wt | Model vs market & result |
|---|---|---|
| Last 32 | ×1 | 25/3225/32 |
| Quarter-finals | ×4 | 4/84/8 |
| Semi-finals | ×8 | 3/44/4 |
| Final | ×16 | 1/22/2 |
| Champion | ×32 | 1/11/1 |
Only the informed model and the market appear here: the zero-knowledge model just re-shapes the market's own prices, so its bracket is identical to the market's by construction — it competes on calibration (Brier), not on picks. And one bracket is a single high-variance draw, so the round-by-round Brier scores are the meaningful verdict; this points race is the legible one.
Rather than commit to one model, the ensemble averages both — weighted by each model's per-round Brier track record. The weight at each rung self-corrects: whichever model is better-calibrated at that rung earns a bigger share. Pre-tournament both weight 0.5; 472 forecasts scored — weights are drifting.
| Round | Model confidence (Zero-knowledge ←→ Informed · Elo) | Leader |
|---|---|---|
| Last 32 | Zero-knowledge ahead | |
| Quarters | Zero-knowledge ahead | |
| Semis | Zero-knowledge ahead | |
| Final | tied | |
| Champion | tied |
The weights converge to ~50/50 at the final rungs — not because the models agree, but because there's barely any signal to separate them there: the win rung has 48 forecasts but only one actual champion, so a model's whole score turns on how it priced a single team. Both gave Spain ~16–17%, so they end up all but tied (Brier 0.0156 vs 0.0155). The loudest forecast is built on the thinnest evidence.
Why average? Combined forecasts beat their components on average — a replicated finding across forecasting (IPCC averages climate models, BoE averages inflation models, ensembles routinely win Kaggle). The catch with one tournament: weights move modestly and the ensemble itself is now a third falsifiable claim.
The informed contender: an independent forecast (not derived from the market). The engine simulates the verified bracket on real per-team World Football Elo ratings (what is Elo?, as of 2026-06-01). The group stage trusts Elo as-is; the knockout gets a disclosed ×0.6 shrink (single-elimination is coin-flippier than match-Elo). The three 2026 co-hosts get a +60 Elo home bump, and every run draws each team's rating from a ±70 Elo uncertainty band — so the favorite sits at a plausible ~16% and we don't print false-precision 0%/100% for minnows and giants. All disclosed priors, not tuned to the market. It can genuinely disagree with the crowd — but a public-ratings model is usually less sharp than a liquid market, so a big gap is more likely the model being cruder than the market being wrong. Its two books (Buy & Hold / Active) sit alongside the zero-knowledge ones below; the scorecard adjudicates.
Spain England France| Team | Polymarket — de-vigged to round slots (what the WORLD prices) | Win the Cup | Edge model−world | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advance | Reach QF | Reach SF | Reach Final | Win Cup | market world | model zero-knowledge | ||
| Spain #2★1 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0% |
| England #4★1 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| France #3★2 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Brazil #5★5 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Argentina #1★3 | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Germany #9★4 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Portugal #6 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Netherlands #7 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| USA #14 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Uruguay #13★2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Mexico #15 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Belgium #8 | >99.9% | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Colombia #12 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Japan #18 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Norway #24 | >99.9% | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Canada #28 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Tunisia #32 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Ecuador #22 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Paraguay #35 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| New Zealand #48 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Australia #21 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Iran #19 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Uzbekistan #39 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| South Korea #20 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Jordan #41 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Morocco #11 | >99.9% | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| South Africa #43 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Senegal #17 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Ivory Coast #29 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Ghana #42 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Egypt #26 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Algeria #31 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Cape Verde #44 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Qatar #30 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Saudi Arabia #37 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Scotland #34 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Switzerland #16 | >99.9% | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Austria #23 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Croatia #10 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Haiti #47 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Curaçao #46 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Panama #27 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Sweden #25 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| DR Congo #38 | >99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Iraq #40 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina #45 | · | · | · | · | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Czechia #33 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Türkiye #36 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.0% |
A secondary, "what-if" view — purely to put a number on the disagreements above. No real money: a $1,000 paper book, conviction-weighted and dollar-neutral. Edges are shown net of a ~1c half-spread — a gap that doesn't clear the cost to trade it is sized to zero (that half-spread is the cost buffer). Buy & Hold enters once at day 0 and holds to resolution; Active Trading is re-evaluated daily and rebalances whenever a market settles or a fresh edge clears that buffer — any day, not only matchdays (a riskless inconsistency is the clearest example). Methodology →
Buy & Hold — entered once at day 0, held to each market's resolution, marked to today's prices. Click a row for the why; click a header to sort.
| Side | Team | Round | Resolves | Entry | Now | PnL | Max ↓ | Max ↑ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | Argentina | Advance | Jun 27 | 95.5% | 100.0% | $+2.43 | $+2.43 | $+2.43 |
| The market prices Argentina to Advance at 95.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a -0.1% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $51.67 · max upside if it resolves your way +$2.43 · breakeven at a true probability of 95.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Switzerland | Advance | Jun 27 | 93.6% | 100.0% | $+3.20 | $+3.20 | $+3.20 |
| The market prices Switzerland to Advance at 93.6%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a -0.1% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $46.80 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.20 · breakeven at a true probability of 93.6% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Belgium | Advance | Jun 27 | 95.9% | 100.0% | $+1.95 | $+1.95 | $+1.95 |
| The market prices Belgium to Advance at 95.9%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a -0.1% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $45.55 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.95 · breakeven at a true probability of 95.9% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Portugal | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.2% | 100.0% | $+1.67 | $+1.67 | $+1.67 |
| The market prices Portugal to Advance at 96.2%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a -0.1% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $41.73 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.67 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.2% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Panama | Advance | Jun 27 | 28.5% | 0.0% | $+16.39 | $+16.39 | $+16.39 |
| The market prices Panama to Advance at 28.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 0.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $41.11 · max upside if it resolves your way +$16.39 · breakeven at a true probability of 28.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Uzbekistan | Advance | Jun 27 | 31.5% | 0.0% | $+18.62 | $+18.62 | $+18.62 |
| The market prices Uzbekistan to Advance at 31.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 0.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $40.48 · max upside if it resolves your way +$18.62 · breakeven at a true probability of 31.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Cape Verde | Advance | Jun 27 | 32.0% | 100.0% | $-40.32 | $-40.32 | $-40.32 |
| The market prices Cape Verde to Advance at 32.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a -0.1% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $40.32 · max upside if it resolves your way +$18.98 · breakeven at a true probability of 32.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | New Zealand | Advance | Jun 27 | 32.5% | 0.0% | $+19.34 | $+19.34 | $+19.34 |
| The market prices New Zealand to Advance at 32.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 0.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $40.16 · max upside if it resolves your way +$19.34 · breakeven at a true probability of 32.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Saudi Arabia | Advance | Jun 27 | 34.5% | 0.0% | $+20.67 | $+20.67 | $+20.67 |
| The market prices Saudi Arabia to Advance at 34.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 0.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $39.23 · max upside if it resolves your way +$20.67 · breakeven at a true probability of 34.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Qatar | Advance | Jun 27 | 21.0% | 0.0% | $+10.39 | $+10.39 | $+10.39 |
| The market prices Qatar to Advance at 21.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 0.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $39.11 · max upside if it resolves your way +$10.39 · breakeven at a true probability of 21.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Jordan | Advance | Jun 27 | 19.0% | 0.0% | $+8.80 | $+8.80 | $+8.80 |
| The market prices Jordan to Advance at 19.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 0.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$8.80 · breakeven at a true probability of 19.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Mexico | Advance | Jun 27 | 90.5% | 100.0% | $+3.93 | $+3.93 | $+3.93 |
| The market prices Mexico to Advance at 90.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a -0.1% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.47 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.93 · breakeven at a true probability of 90.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Germany | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.5% | 100.0% | $+1.37 | $+1.37 | $+1.37 |
| The market prices Germany to Advance at 96.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a -0.1% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.23 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.37 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | South Africa | Advance | Jun 27 | 38.0% | 100.0% | $-37.08 | $-37.08 | $-37.08 |
| The market prices South Africa to Advance at 38.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a -0.1% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $37.08 · max upside if it resolves your way +$22.72 · breakeven at a true probability of 38.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Tunisia | Advance | Jun 27 | 38.5% | 0.0% | $+22.98 | $+22.98 | $+22.98 |
| The market prices Tunisia to Advance at 38.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 0.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $36.72 · max upside if it resolves your way +$22.98 · breakeven at a true probability of 38.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Brazil | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.5% | 100.0% | $+1.32 | $+1.32 | $+1.32 |
| The market prices Brazil to Advance at 96.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a -0.1% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $36.48 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.32 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Netherlands | Advance | Jun 27 | 90.0% | 100.0% | $+4.00 | $+4.00 | $+4.00 |
| The market prices Netherlands to Advance at 90.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a -0.1% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $36.00 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.00 · breakeven at a true probability of 90.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Ecuador | Advance | Jun 27 | 89.0% | 100.0% | $+4.09 | $+4.09 | $+4.09 |
| The market prices Ecuador to Advance at 89.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a -0.1% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $33.11 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.09 · breakeven at a true probability of 89.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | DR Congo | Advance | Jun 27 | 43.0% | 100.0% | $-32.49 | $-32.49 | $-32.49 |
| The market prices DR Congo to Advance at 43.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a -0.1% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $32.49 · max upside if it resolves your way +$24.51 · breakeven at a true probability of 43.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Iraq | Advance | Jun 27 | 14.5% | 0.0% | $+5.48 | $+5.48 | $+5.48 |
| The market prices Iraq to Advance at 14.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 0.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $32.32 · max upside if it resolves your way +$5.48 · breakeven at a true probability of 14.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | France | Advance | Jun 27 | 96.8% | 100.0% | $+1.05 | $+1.05 | $+1.05 |
| The market prices France to Advance at 96.8%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a -0.1% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $31.85 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.05 · breakeven at a true probability of 96.8% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Haiti | Advance | Jun 27 | 13.0% | 0.0% | $+4.49 | $+4.49 | $+4.49 |
| The market prices Haiti to Advance at 13.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 0.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $30.02 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.49 · breakeven at a true probability of 13.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Colombia | Advance | Jun 27 | 87.5% | 100.0% | $+4.10 | $+4.10 | $+4.10 |
| The market prices Colombia to Advance at 87.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a -0.1% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $28.70 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.10 · breakeven at a true probability of 87.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Switzerland | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 22.0% | 100.0% | $-26.68 | $-26.68 | $-26.68 |
| The market prices Switzerland to Reach QF at 22.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a -0.1% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $26.68 · max upside if it resolves your way +$7.52 · breakeven at a true probability of 22.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Türkiye | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 21.5% | 0.0% | $+7.31 | $+7.31 | $+7.31 |
| The market prices Türkiye to Reach QF at 21.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 0.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically overprices longshots — we fade the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $26.69 · max upside if it resolves your way +$7.31 · breakeven at a true probability of 21.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Uruguay | Advance | Jun 27 | 86.5% | 0.0% | $-25.95 | $-25.95 | $-25.95 |
| The market prices Uruguay to Advance at 86.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 0.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $25.95 · max upside if it resolves your way +$4.05 · breakeven at a true probability of 86.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Morocco | Advance | Jun 27 | 86.0% | 100.0% | $+3.98 | $+3.98 | $+3.98 |
| The market prices Morocco to Advance at 86.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a -0.1% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $24.42 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.98 · breakeven at a true probability of 86.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Norway | Advance | Jun 27 | 85.5% | 100.0% | $+3.92 | $+3.92 | $+3.92 |
| The market prices Norway to Advance at 85.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 99.9% — a -0.1% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $23.09 · max upside if it resolves your way +$3.92 · breakeven at a true probability of 85.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| realized $+8.96 · unrealized $+0.00 · 0/28 open | $+8.96 | ↤ click a row | ||||||
Active Trading is currently silent. The daily rebalancer would have cut a leg the model turned against or rotated into a clearly bigger edge — but no edge has cleared the half-spread cost buffer, so it has held the same positions as Buy & Hold. (The tab reappears here automatically the first time it fires.)
Elo · Buy & Hold — entered once at day 0, held to each market's resolution, marked to today's prices. Knockout rounds only (advance excluded); the rows are largely one correlated 'results-vs-reputation' bet, not diversified breadth. Click a row for the why; click a header to sort.
| Side | Team | Round | Resolves | Entry | Now | PnL | Max ↓ | Max ↑ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | Ecuador | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 18.0% | 0.0% | $-63.97 | $-63.97 | $-63.97 |
| The market prices Ecuador to Reach QF at 18.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $63.97 · max upside if it resolves your way +$291.43 · breakeven at a true probability of 18.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | England | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 55.5% | 100.0% | $-56.56 | $-56.56 | $-56.56 |
| The market prices England to Reach QF at 55.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 100.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $56.56 · max upside if it resolves your way +$70.54 · breakeven at a true probability of 55.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Portugal | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 48.5% | 0.0% | $+47.00 | $+47.00 | $+47.00 |
| The market prices Portugal to Reach QF at 48.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $49.90 · max upside if it resolves your way +$47.00 · breakeven at a true probability of 48.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Belgium | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 37.0% | 100.0% | $-48.95 | $-48.95 | $-48.95 |
| The market prices Belgium to Reach QF at 37.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 100.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $48.95 · max upside if it resolves your way +$28.75 · breakeven at a true probability of 37.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Argentina | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 30.5% | 100.0% | $+103.76 | $+103.76 | $+103.76 |
| The market prices Argentina to Reach SF at 30.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 100.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $45.54 · max upside if it resolves your way +$103.76 · breakeven at a true probability of 30.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Iran | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 4.5% | 0.0% | $-45.02 | $-45.02 | $-45.02 |
| The market prices Iran to Reach QF at 4.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $45.02 · max upside if it resolves your way +$955.48 · breakeven at a true probability of 4.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | USA | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 23.0% | 0.0% | $+13.34 | $+13.34 | $+13.34 |
| The market prices USA to Reach QF at 23.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $44.66 · max upside if it resolves your way +$13.34 · breakeven at a true probability of 23.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Croatia | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 19.0% | 0.0% | $-43.43 | $-43.43 | $-43.43 |
| The market prices Croatia to Reach QF at 19.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $43.43 · max upside if it resolves your way +$185.17 · breakeven at a true probability of 19.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Brazil | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 50.0% | 0.0% | $+39.80 | $+39.80 | $+39.80 |
| The market prices Brazil to Reach QF at 50.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $39.80 · max upside if it resolves your way +$39.80 · breakeven at a true probability of 50.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Mexico | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 24.5% | 0.0% | $-38.69 | $-38.69 | $-38.69 |
| The market prices Mexico to Reach QF at 24.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $38.69 · max upside if it resolves your way +$119.21 · breakeven at a true probability of 24.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Portugal | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 31.0% | 0.0% | $+16.43 | $+16.43 | $+16.43 |
| The market prices Portugal to Reach SF at 31.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $36.57 · max upside if it resolves your way +$16.43 · breakeven at a true probability of 31.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Colombia | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 28.0% | 0.0% | $-35.64 | $-35.64 | $-35.64 |
| The market prices Colombia to Reach QF at 28.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $35.64 · max upside if it resolves your way +$91.66 · breakeven at a true probability of 28.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Ecuador | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 8.0% | 0.0% | $-35.06 | $-35.06 | $-35.06 |
| The market prices Ecuador to Reach SF at 8.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $35.06 · max upside if it resolves your way +$403.24 · breakeven at a true probability of 8.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Canada | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 14.5% | 0.0% | $-34.50 | $-34.50 | $-34.50 |
| The market prices Canada to Reach QF at 14.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $34.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$203.40 · breakeven at a true probability of 14.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Germany | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 24.0% | 0.0% | $+10.34 | $+10.34 | $+10.34 |
| The market prices Germany to Reach SF at 24.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $32.76 · max upside if it resolves your way +$10.34 · breakeven at a true probability of 24.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Brazil | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 31.0% | 0.0% | $+13.70 | $+13.70 | $+13.70 |
| The market prices Brazil to Reach SF at 31.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $30.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$13.70 · breakeven at a true probability of 31.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | France | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 43.5% | 100.0% | $-29.49 | $-29.49 | $-29.49 |
| The market prices France to Reach SF at 43.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 100.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $29.49 · max upside if it resolves your way +$22.71 · breakeven at a true probability of 43.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Germany | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 37.0% | 0.0% | $+17.02 | $+17.02 | $+17.02 |
| The market prices Germany to Reach QF at 37.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $28.98 · max upside if it resolves your way +$17.02 · breakeven at a true probability of 37.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Paraguay | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 10.0% | 0.0% | $-28.73 | $-28.73 | $-28.73 |
| The market prices Paraguay to Reach QF at 10.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $28.73 · max upside if it resolves your way +$258.57 · breakeven at a true probability of 10.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Panama | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 3.3% | 0.0% | $-27.77 | $-27.77 | $-27.77 |
| The market prices Panama to Reach QF at 3.3%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $27.77 · max upside if it resolves your way +$813.83 · breakeven at a true probability of 3.3% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | France | Win Cup | Jul 19 | 16.0% | 0.0% | $+5.02 | $+5.02 | $+5.02 |
| The market prices France to Win Cup at 16.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $26.48 · max upside if it resolves your way +$5.02 · breakeven at a true probability of 16.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Colombia | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 14.5% | 0.0% | $-25.74 | $-25.74 | $-25.74 |
| The market prices Colombia to Reach SF at 14.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.74 · max upside if it resolves your way +$151.76 · breakeven at a true probability of 14.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Türkiye | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 21.5% | 0.0% | $-25.50 | $-25.50 | $-25.50 |
| The market prices Türkiye to Reach QF at 21.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.50 · max upside if it resolves your way +$93.10 · breakeven at a true probability of 21.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Croatia | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 8.9% | 0.0% | $-25.22 | $-25.22 | $-25.22 |
| The market prices Croatia to Reach SF at 8.9%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.22 · max upside if it resolves your way +$258.18 · breakeven at a true probability of 8.9% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Australia | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 5.0% | 0.0% | $-25.17 | $-25.17 | $-25.17 |
| The market prices Australia to Reach QF at 5.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it higher, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.17 · max upside if it resolves your way +$478.23 · breakeven at a true probability of 5.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | England | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 33.5% | 100.0% | $-25.14 | $-25.14 | $-25.14 |
| The market prices England to Reach SF at 33.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 100.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.14 · max upside if it resolves your way +$12.66 · breakeven at a true probability of 33.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Norway | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 32.0% | 100.0% | $-25.09 | $-25.09 | $-25.09 |
| The market prices Norway to Reach QF at 32.0%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 100.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.09 · max upside if it resolves your way +$11.81 · breakeven at a true probability of 32.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| SHORT | Ghana | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 6.5% | 0.0% | $+1.74 | $+1.74 | $+1.74 |
| The market prices Ghana to Reach QF at 6.5%. Our informed Elo model — real World Football Elo run through a simulated bracket, not the market's prices — rates it lower, at 0.0%, a +0.0% gap. Where a public-ratings model and a liquid market disagree the market is usually the sharper one — the scorecard adjudicates. stake (most you can lose) $25.06 · max upside if it resolves your way +$1.74 · breakeven at a true probability of 6.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| realized $-371.52 · unrealized $+0.00 · 0/28 open | $-371.52 | ↤ click a row | ||||||
Hypothetical — not a tracked claim. The SAME day-0 Elo forecast, built the simple way: long only the model's top-ranked teams at each knockout rung (top-8 to reach QF, top-4 SF, top-2 Final, top-2 champion), conviction-weighted by probability, no shorts. This is the ‘follow the most probable path’ book. Prices are the frozen day-0 market where the tracked book traded that team, else the Elo probability as a proxy (no trade ⇒ the model-market gap was inside the half-spread). It exists to show that the Elo signal was sound — the tracked book’s loss was a construction choice (edge-sizing + shorts), not a model failure. Click a row for the why; click a header to sort.
| Side | Team | Round | Resolves | Entry | Now | PnL | Max ↓ | Max ↑ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG | Spain | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 59.2% | 100.0% | $+75.19 | $+75.19 | $+75.19 |
| The market prices Spain to Reach QF at 59.2%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 100.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $108.91 · max upside if it resolves your way +$75.19 · breakeven at a true probability of 59.2% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Argentina | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 52.8% | 100.0% | $+86.78 | $+86.78 | $+86.78 |
| The market prices Argentina to Reach QF at 52.8%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 100.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $96.92 · max upside if it resolves your way +$86.78 · breakeven at a true probability of 52.8% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | France | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 47.8% | 100.0% | $+95.73 | $+95.73 | $+95.73 |
| The market prices France to Reach QF at 47.8%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 100.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $87.67 · max upside if it resolves your way +$95.73 · breakeven at a true probability of 47.8% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | England | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 56.5% | 100.0% | $+56.12 | $+56.12 | $+56.12 |
| The market prices England to Reach QF at 56.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 100.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $72.88 · max upside if it resolves your way +$56.12 · breakeven at a true probability of 56.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Brazil | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 51.0% | 0.0% | $-68.54 | $-68.54 | $-68.54 |
| The market prices Brazil to Reach QF at 51.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 0.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $68.54 · max upside if it resolves your way +$65.86 · breakeven at a true probability of 51.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Portugal | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 49.5% | 0.0% | $-62.07 | $-62.07 | $-62.07 |
| The market prices Portugal to Reach QF at 49.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 0.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $62.07 · max upside if it resolves your way +$63.33 · breakeven at a true probability of 49.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Colombia | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 29.0% | 0.0% | $-61.05 | $-61.05 | $-61.05 |
| The market prices Colombia to Reach QF at 29.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 0.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $61.04 · max upside if it resolves your way +$149.45 · breakeven at a true probability of 29.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Netherlands | Reach QF | Jul 7 | 33.3% | 0.0% | $-60.58 | $-60.58 | $-60.58 |
| The market prices Netherlands to Reach QF at 33.3%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 0.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $60.58 · max upside if it resolves your way +$121.12 · breakeven at a true probability of 33.3% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Spain | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 42.0% | 100.0% | $+106.06 | $+106.06 | $+106.06 |
| The market prices Spain to Reach SF at 42.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 100.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $76.74 · max upside if it resolves your way +$106.06 · breakeven at a true probability of 42.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Argentina | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 31.5% | 100.0% | $+141.18 | $+141.18 | $+141.18 |
| The market prices Argentina to Reach SF at 31.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 100.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $64.92 · max upside if it resolves your way +$141.18 · breakeven at a true probability of 31.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | France | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 44.5% | 100.0% | $+69.99 | $+69.99 | $+69.99 |
| The market prices France to Reach SF at 44.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 100.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $56.11 · max upside if it resolves your way +$69.99 · breakeven at a true probability of 44.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | England | Reach SF | Jul 11 | 34.5% | 100.0% | $+79.19 | $+79.19 | $+79.19 |
| The market prices England to Reach SF at 34.5%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 100.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $41.71 · max upside if it resolves your way +$79.19 · breakeven at a true probability of 34.5% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Spain | Reach Final | Jul 15 | 27.3% | 100.0% | $+131.13 | $+131.13 | $+131.13 |
| The market prices Spain to Reach Final at 27.3%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 100.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $49.27 · max upside if it resolves your way +$131.13 · breakeven at a true probability of 27.3% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Argentina | Reach Final | Jul 15 | 22.0% | 100.0% | $+139.50 | $+139.50 | $+139.50 |
| The market prices Argentina to Reach Final at 22.0%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 100.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $39.30 · max upside if it resolves your way +$139.50 · breakeven at a true probability of 22.0% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Spain | Win Cup | Jul 19 | 17.4% | 100.0% | $+145.82 | $+145.82 | $+145.82 |
| The market prices Spain to Win Cup at 17.4%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 100.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $30.68 · max upside if it resolves your way +$145.82 · breakeven at a true probability of 17.4% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| LONG | Argentina | Win Cup | Jul 19 | 13.1% | 0.0% | $-22.66 | $-22.66 | $-22.66 |
| The market prices Argentina to Win Cup at 13.1%. Our zero-knowledge model (favorite–longshot shape correction on the de-vigged ladder) puts it at 0.0% — a +0.0% gap. Because the market systematically underprices favorites — we buy the gap. No football knowledge is used: the edge is the price structure. stake (most you can lose) $22.66 · max upside if it resolves your way +$150.34 · breakeven at a true probability of 13.1% · view market on Polymarket ↗ (may be restricted in your region) | ||||||||
| realized $+851.78 · unrealized $+0.00 · 0/16 open | $+851.78 | ↤ click a row | ||||||